Apparently he doesn’t believe that increasing temperature can increase the amount of water vapor in the air, or that can affect the amount of snowfall. Perhaps he should learn some science.
He also seems to think that “winters are getting colder in the mid-latitudes.” Perhaps he should look at some temperature data for winters in the mid-latitudes. But wait … Tony believes that the temperature data sets are fraudulent. He seems to think that a lot of climate data is fraudulent. In fact, the header of his blog contains the word “fraud” or “fraudulent” ten times. He only mentions “racketeering,” “garbage,” “collusion,” “corruption,” and “scam” once each. I think he has some issues.
Interesting is what he has to say about year-round snow cover:
Then Tamino tries to claim that for the whole year snow cover is decreasing. This also is complete nonsense. Snow cover has increased substantially since late 1980’s and early 1990’s — and North American snow cover is about the same as it was 50 years ago.
Saying so don’t make it so.
Let’s estimate the trend in yearly-average snow cover anomaly, to get some real evidence whether it’s going up or down. If we start at the beginning of the data, well … sorry, Tony, it’s going down. The decline even shows “statistical significance.”
But Tony wants to start later, in the “late 1980’s and early 1990’s” somewhere. He picks that because, to him, it looks like what he wants. That’s a textbook example of cherry-picking.
We’ll let the baby have his cherry. Here’s the estimated trend rate, with error bars, for every start year from 1966 (when the data begin) through 2000:
There are a few years in the late 1980s when the estimate rises above zero, but you might notice that none of them achieves statistical significance. The fascinating thing is that even if one of them did, that’s still not sufficient evidence because you have to take into account the multiple testing problem. I’ve mentioned this before. Alas, that’s probably too much for a simpleton to deal with.
But, as I said, none of them achieves “statistical significance” anyway. The only reliable conclusion from these data is the overall decline. Which means: maybe it’s time for Tony Heller to call the data “fraudulent.”
What’s most interesting, absolutely fascinating, truly spellbinding, is what Tony Heller has to say about how snow cover has changed during the spring and summer months. What pearls of wisdom flow from his pen? What insightful conclusions follow? What does he say about that, you wonder?
For those interested in some actual science, here’s how monthly northern hemisphere snow cover has changed over time, for all 12 months of the year:
And, for those interested in rates of change, here they are for all 12 months of the year.
Draw your own conclusions. I’m sure Tony Heller will.
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