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Not long ago I posted about how multiple factors, including in particular the use of “broken trends,” can lead us astray about what the trend really is by allowing distinctly non-physical changes. It also amounts to ignoring evidence about the trend, namely all the data that comes before a chosen start time. Let me illustrate.
Over at WUWT someone posted a comment on Bob Tisdale’s post (see my post about that) drawing attention to my removal of the influences of el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar fluctuations from the temperature record. This didn’t sit well with some of their readers, particularly someone using the moniker “Javier,” who had this to say:
NASA has just released their latest global temperature update. It’s still hot (the latest value is shown in red):
Per request, I’ve tested the model of global temperature with el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations. It was suggested using a 15-year time span as a “hold-out” period for validation, but I decided to use longer hold-out period. Hence the model was fit with data from 1951 through 1989, and the period from 1990 to the present to investigate whether or not the model could match data with which it was not trained. I also decided to do this test with the NASA GISS data set.
By request, I’ve computed the estimated influence of el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations on both surface temperature data and satellite data.