Non-Linear Trends

Any given time series, say July average temperature in the Moscow region since 1881, might exhibit both short-term (more brief) and long-term (more lasting) patterns of change. The longer-term is certainly something worth knowing about. It might be increasing, or decreasing, or it might not be changing at all. It might have wiggled around a lot but not really gone anywhere until some new factor came into play. But whatever its pattern, we usually identify the longer-term pattern of change with the trend.

What we’re really after is the background level against which temperature variations have their sway. By “trend value” I mean exactly that: the background level at a given moment. If it changes while the nature of the fluctuations remains the same, the probability of record-setting extremes will of course change. When the background level is colder we’re more likely to get cold extremes, and when it’s hotter we’ll get more extreme heat. Pretty simple.

Continue reading

Hansen’s 1988 Predictions

On another forum entirely, discussion arose of Jim Hansen’s 1988 computer model simulation and its prediction for future temperature change. Talk centered around a graph from this post by the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation):

Continue reading

What does a hero look like?

This:

WSVN_police_officer_vicki_thomas_jt_131023_16x9_608

Before you read further I’ll warn you that this is a rant which has nothing to do with climate science.

Continue reading

What We’re Up Against

There’s a post at WUWT which is really a cross-post of this by Harold Ambler. It claims that the NOAA temperature map for this February is “less than accurate.”

Continue reading

New Mexico Snow

Senator Heinrich of New Mexico mentioned the declining snowpack in his home state during the senate’s recent all-night session about man-made climate change.

Continue reading

Grading the U.S. Senate: Climate Crisis All-Night Session

I watched a fair amount of the speeches given during the Senate’s all-night session about the threat of man-made climate change. Some of the things talked about were good, some of the things said were not so good.

Continue reading

California Drought

Despite recent rains, California is still in the midst of crippling drought. In a recent opinion piece by Martin Hoerling the case is made that essentially, man-made climate change has nothing at all to do with the present California drought.


Thus, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that human-induced climate change has played any appreciable role in the current California drought.

I disagree.

Continue reading