Category Archives: Global Warming

Record global warming, or warming slowdown?

Guest post by Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster, and Niamh Cahill

A look at the global surface temperature evolution makes one thing very clear: claims that global warming has “stopped” or “slowed” are not exactly supported by the recent data. Last month was not just the warmest April on record, it also beat the previous April record by the largest margin since the beginning of record-keeping in the year 1880. (April 2016 was 0.24 °C warmer than the previous record April 2010; this margin was three times larger than the previously largest margin of 0.08 °C.) In fact, February was also the warmest February, by the largest margin on record. And January was the warmest January on record. Yes, by the largest margin. The running 12-month average global temperature (Fig. 1) is reaching new unprecedented heights every month.

runmean

Figure 1: 12-month running means of global temperature anomaly from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

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Time Series Begins

The class has begun. Lesson 1 is here.

The more the merrier, so feel free to encourage others who might be interested (and prepared), but don’t know this blog, to join in.

And tremendous thanks — again — to all the donors who have made this possible (of course, more donations are welcome). You’re great!

Models

Now that global temperature has skyrocketed, talk about a “pause” of global warming only embarrasses the deniers who so craved it. Hence they’ve switched — again. Their general strategy is to search long enough and hard enough to find one thing that looks like it’s a sign against warming, which is easy even in a warming world; random fluctuation alone ensures there’s always at least one thing that’s bucking the trend. Temporarily, that is; because global warming is real, those fluctuation-induced signs don’t last. When the one deniers have been crowing about (like the so-called “pause”) turns out not to be, they switch to a different talking point.

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Arctic Dive?

Arctic sea ice has been flirting with record lows all winter long, and many days has actually plunged below previous records. But now, it seems to be going even lower.

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Fired

John Church is probably the world’s leading expert on sea level change. The most trusted global sea level history based on tide gauge data is that of Church & White, yes that Church. For over 30 years he has headed the division which studies that subject for the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Australia.

In their continuing campaign to gut government-funded climate science, the Australian government is eliminating most if not all climate research at CSIRO. They recently fired John Church. They were so callous about it, they fired him while he was on a sea voyage studying important ocean properties.

You can read more about it here.


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Key Kanye

Albert “making up stuff” Parker has lately been contributing prolifically to the WUWT blog. His most recent is an attempt to dispel any worry about sea level rise, simply because some researchers stated a sea level rise rate for south Florida which doesn’t represent a genuine long-term trend.

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Time Series is coming: Watch This Space

I’ve ready to begin preparing the first online course, which will be: Time Series.

I reiterate that this isn’t your economics professor’s time series course; the emphasis is on analyzing temporal data in science. And truth be told, it’s not exclusively time series, for example I intend to cover regression in moderate depth, and we’ll take a closer look at Fourier analysis than most time series courses. Basically, it’s an introduction to the things that have worked for me when I study time series. That includes some of the quirky notational conventions I like to use; here’s hoping my quirks catch on.

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