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Category Archives: Global Warming
I have friends who are teachers in Maine and New York state, and family who are teachers in Ohio and Georgia. There’s a great deal of uncertainty about the upcoming school year, and lots of concern over COVID-19. One of the crucial aspects of re-opening schools is the current state of the pandemic. Of course it’s only one factor in the school decision, but it is a crucial one. With that in mind, let’s look at these four states and assess how ready (or not) they are to deal with COVID-19.
In my opinion, in order to loosen restrictions, re-open the economy, and/or consider re-opening schools, a state should be in the “green zone” — no more than 40 cases per day per million population. At that level, cases are few enough that contact tracing can work its magic to best effect, stomping out flare-ups before they get out of hand. Contact tracing, and a mandatory mask order, are how you stay in the green zone.
New York is in excellent shape: the green zone.
I’ve received some comments on the blog which went straight to the trash bin.
For instance: someone wrote to tell me that the only reason “red states” (with republican governors) looked so bad is that Massachusetts had a republican governor, even though they’re a “blue state.” Red state outbreak? Blame it on Massachusetts.
Someone wrote to tell me that the southern-state red-state outbreak was because summer broght warm weather, which induced people to go outdoors and do more socializing. At the same time, someone else wrote to tell me that the southern-state red-state outbreak was because summer brought hot weather, which induced people to spend time indoors with air conditioning, in closer quarters.
Then there was the person who declared that “80% of COV19 cases are mild, that being the case who cares how many people have it … the question is how many people “die” from it.” Well, quite a few of those who don’t die are still ravaged, requiring a lung transplant or a life of dialysis or inability to breathe without an artificial oxygen supply — maybe they care? How about the people who actually *love* those who die?
How about all the people on the receiving end, when “mild” cases infect others? I’ll bet those “others” care.
For over 10 years, I fought against the stupidity from those who denied the reality, human cause, or danger from climate change. They brought their crazy idiot conspiracy theories, I smashed them. It was fun. It was useful. I helped stem the tide of lies that climate deniers use to sabotage action.
But I’m not going to do that with COVID-19. Yes there are deniers — people in serious denial (usually for political reasons). Let them bring their crazy theories here. Let them spend hours, days, weeks, composing their manifesto and submit it to my blog. It’s going straight to the trash can.
Because as much fun as it is to show idiots just how stupid they are — I don’t have time.
How do you control an epidemic? In that context, let me discuss the SIR model of disease and demonstrate it in action. It’s the one that gives rise to those curves we’ve seen so many of, the ones that we’re trying to flatten.
Worth listening to. Closely.