Category Archives: Global Warming

Non-Linear Trends

Any given time series, say July average temperature in the Moscow region since 1881, might exhibit both short-term (more brief) and long-term (more lasting) patterns of change. The longer-term is certainly something worth knowing about. It might be increasing, or decreasing, or it might not be changing at all. It might have wiggled around a lot but not really gone anywhere until some new factor came into play. But whatever its pattern, we usually identify the longer-term pattern of change with the trend.

What we’re really after is the background level against which temperature variations have their sway. By “trend value” I mean exactly that: the background level at a given moment. If it changes while the nature of the fluctuations remains the same, the probability of record-setting extremes will of course change. When the background level is colder we’re more likely to get cold extremes, and when it’s hotter we’ll get more extreme heat. Pretty simple.

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Hansen’s 1988 Predictions

On another forum entirely, discussion arose of Jim Hansen’s 1988 computer model simulation and its prediction for future temperature change. Talk centered around a graph from this post by the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation):

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What does a hero look like?

This:

WSVN_police_officer_vicki_thomas_jt_131023_16x9_608

Before you read further I’ll warn you that this is a rant which has nothing to do with climate science.

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What We’re Up Against

There’s a post at WUWT which is really a cross-post of this by Harold Ambler. It claims that the NOAA temperature map for this February is “less than accurate.”

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New Mexico Snow

Senator Heinrich of New Mexico mentioned the declining snowpack in his home state during the senate’s recent all-night session about man-made climate change.

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Grading the U.S. Senate: Climate Crisis All-Night Session

I watched a fair amount of the speeches given during the Senate’s all-night session about the threat of man-made climate change. Some of the things talked about were good, some of the things said were not so good.

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California Drought

Despite recent rains, California is still in the midst of crippling drought. In a recent opinion piece by Martin Hoerling the case is made that essentially, man-made climate change has nothing at all to do with the present California drought.


Thus, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that human-induced climate change has played any appreciable role in the current California drought.

I disagree.

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U.S. Senate: Up All Night

SENATORS SPEAKING ALL NIGHT TO URGE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

MONDAY, MARCH 10 – TUESDAY, MARCH 11

Washington, DC – Immediately following votes on the evening of Monday, March 10 until approximately 9 am ET Tuesday, March 11, Senators from the Senate Climate Action Task Force will be holding the Senate floor to urge action on climate change. A significant number of Senators are expected to participate throughout the night.

“Climate change is real, it is caused by humans, and it is solvable,” said Senator Schatz. “Congress must act. On Monday night we’re going to show the growing number of Senators who are committed to working together to confront climate change.”

Senator Boxer said: “So many Senators coming together for an all-night session shows our commitment to wake up Congress to the dangers of climate change. All you have to do is look at China to see what happens to your country when you throw the environment under the bus.”

“The cost of Congress’ inaction on climate change is too high for our communities, our kids and grandkids, and our economy,” Senator Whitehouse said. “On Monday we’ll be sending a clear message: it’s time for Congress to wake up and get serious about addressing this issue.”

Senators expected to participate include:

Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Senator Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

Senator Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.

Senator Patty Murray, D-Wash.

Senator Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I.

Senator Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.

Senator Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.

Senator Ron Wyden, D-Ore.

Senator Bill Nelson, D-Fla.

Senator Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.

Senator Benjamin L. Cardin, D-Md.

Senator Bernard Sanders, I-Vt.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.

Senator Mark Udall, D-Colo.

Senator Tom Udall, D-N.M.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

Senator Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y.

Senator Al Franken, D-Minn.

Senator Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.

Senator Chris Murphy, D-Conn.

Senator Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.

Senator Angus King, I-Maine

Senator Tim Kaine, D-Va.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

Senator Edward J. Markey, D-Mass.

Senator Cory Booker, D-N.J.

Senators will be actively participating on social media as well throughout the night – using the hashtag #Up4Climate.

Pielke Pwned

Read all about it at ClimateProgress.

Hot Days

Climate is defined as the mean and variation of weather over long periods of time (typically, 30 years). I emphasize the “and variation” part because climate change doesn’t just refer to a changes in the mean, it also refers to changes in the variation.

One aspect of that change in variation is highlighted in a new paper (Seneviratne et al. 2014, Nature Climate Change, 4, 161-163) which points out that although global average temperature may have been increasing more slowly recently than in the previous two decades or so, the frequency of hot days in land areas has been increasing faster recently than in the previous two decades or so.

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