New blog posts will be slow coming this week, because I’m busy doing science. First, the new adjusted temperature data and the methods to produce it should be published in the peer-reviewed literature, and in my opinion, soon. Second, I’m researching computer models with some other climate scientists, mainly to study what the models say about how Earth’s warming rate changes over time. I can personally assure you that none of us is trying to avoid hot models; we’re trying to understand them.
In the meantime, here’s an open thread.
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Open Mind 
I could wish that people would not post lengthy posts with imagery and links to fake skeptic posts. This is not to criticize those who debunk popular lies which need debunking (in particular, our fearless leaders, people like John Mashey, DeSmogBlog, SkepticalScience, RealClimate, aTTP, and elsewhere). Sometimes the emphasis backfires by promoting the message cited rather than the debunk. Please remember to put the correction front and center, rather than the false material.
Long time no see Susan,
Comments seem to be closed on the “Optimism” thread, so I’ll post this here.
Many moons ago I snuck my surfcam into a gathering of climate scientists at Exeter University. Here is the abstract what it recorded:
The whole thing is over there too.
Yes, the new adjusted temperature data should be published, looking forward to it.
I’ve redone my estimate of the current warming rate with two changes: dropping 2023 (such an extreme outlier at the end of the time series has an undue influence) and including confidence intervals (assuming the adjusted time series is smooth + independent noise).
This gives a current warming rate of 2.2 ºC/decade, 95% CI [1.9,2.5], with a fairly steady increase from 0.08 ºC/decade in the 1960s.
Did you mean 0.22 deg C per decade, i.e. 2.2 deg per century?
Does anyone know how to access current TSI data? I used to get it from:
http://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite/DataPlots/
But that no longer works. It appears to have moved to:
http://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/virgo/TSI/TSIcomposite/
but that requires login credentials and I don’t see a link or contact to request access.
Any help appreciated.
This file contains the latest version of the ROB TSI composite.
MAR, thanks! That’s a very useful site. But do you know if anyone’s extended it before 1947? I’d like to put together TSI from 1850 on, but I can’t just plug in these figures at 1947, unless, perhaps, I also put in a dummy variable for 1 = 1947 or later, or some such.
-Barton Paul Levenson
TSI data pre-1947?
I’m not even sure how they manage to get back to 1947 with daily data. The proxy used is (I think) monthly back to 1947. Beyond that the TSI numbers I’ve seen are then the annual ones. There is an easy ‘annual’ download from this webpage.
Either my browser or this site added the http:// to those links. They are ftp://, not http://.
Oh dear! Wait till SVP finds out you DO actually know some other climate scientists!
I know right? He even CLAIMS to do science alongside them now?
Outrageous! Arrest for treason?
The “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas” global temperatures of last year (as Zeke Hausfather described them) prompted me to look at the global temperature responses to the 1998, 2010, 2016 & 2024 El Niños. And that led to looking at the hemisphere/land temperatures. I have a graphic showing NOAA data (5-month rolling averages) posted HERE (posted 14/2/24) which illustrates what I’m blathering about. And this suggests to me it is the temperature responses to El Niño that are altering, perhaps this under a warmed climate, with the NH Oceans showing an increased earlier response which in turn kicks of a large NH Land response a month or so later. If the “bananas” of 2023 were a modified El Niño response, the net result is perhaps a trend of (or transition to) earlier & larger global El Niño temperature wobbles.
The ERA5 daily data provides a ‘finer’ look at the global & NH wobbles (see graphic posted 15/12/23) and (perhaps rather conveniently) show progressively earlier ‘peak’ El Niño global responses.
I set out all this nerdy stuff as it would suggest the correlation between the likes of MEI & global temperature wobbles used to adjust SAT/TLT will not be so simply obtained.
As for accelerating temperature trends under AGW (which
should be there given the Climate Response Function for a Forcing pulse keeps giving and AGW is driven by an ongoing increase in Forcing), it should be there & its absence prior to c2013 was surely a little odd.
While the temperatures and the sea surface temperatures are the things that are rocketing upwards and seem to be readily measured, I have maintained, and I still maintain, that the most important threat to our civilization is the change in rainfall that goes with those temperatures, that affects agriculture fastest, and that is the most difficult thing for us to predict.
I have always regarded the large differences in model results for precipitation as being indicative of a greater sensitivity and larger risk of it changing suddenly to a regime that does not support the need of 8 billion humans for food and potable water.
Is that assessment just my own intuition (it currently is) or is there a reason I should feel this way?
[Response: You’re not the only one who expects changes in precipitation to bring trouble, and what’s happening in California right now makes one wonder. But there are other impacts on agriculture, including high temperature, and I don’t have the expertise to give you a good opinion about what is the greatest threat.
Uncertainty is not our friend.]
When it comes to precipitation and agriculture, my general impression is that there are three categories it will fall under:
1) Too much.
2) Not enough.
3) Wrong time.
Category 3 is probably the most difficult to predict or manage.
After working at a climate research station in southern Saskatchewan, where clay soils are the norm, I finally understood the meaning of the phrase “too wet to plow”.
It’s a bit like that at the moment in my winter residence in (currently) soggy South West England Bob:
2) https://Davidstow.info/2022/09/the-2022-drought-in-cornwall/
“Colliford Lake has fallen to 15.3% of total net capacity, a 1.6% drop last week. Stithians fell by 0.9%, to 13.8%”
1) https://West-Devon.info/2024/03/an-abnormally-warm-and-wet-february-in-the-west-country/
“It was also a wetter than average month, with the south of England experiencing its wettest February since the series began in 1836. Many parts of southern England recorded well over twice the average rainfall.”