By request, I’ve computed the estimated influence of el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations on both surface temperature data and satellite data.
The adjustment for el Niño is more sophisticated now, allowing for both a prompt and a longer-delayed response, and allowing for a seasonal effect on the el Niño influence. I’ve also done this for more data sets, specifically adding the Cowtan & Way and the Berkeley data sets. Hence I’ve done so for the following data sets:
For the surface temperature data sets, it now begins in 1951.
The attached file contains time, plus four entries for each data set: the original data, the model incorporating the given factors, the residuals from the model, and “adjsted” data removing the influence of el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations.
The data are here as an ASCII text file, but it’s named “.xls” (an Excel file) because wordpress won’t allow me to upload a text file. Just change the file extension from “.xls” to “.txt” and you should be fine.
Just to illustrate, I’ll graph the results for NASA (surface) and RSS (satellite) data. We’ll start with NASA monthly data:
Here are the annual averages of same:
Here’s the satellite data from RSS TTT v4:
And here are annual averages of same:
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