If you look at the graph of COVID-19 infections in the U.S., the “omicron wave” is rather obvious:
Yes, it’s that giant spike in the infection rate at the end, the one that has hit us this year.
Let me plot that data again, as a blue line, but reduced by a factor of 100. I’ll also delay it 20 days. That way, we’ll see what 1% of daily infections looks like, when it’s delayed 20 days. But I’ll expand the y-axis so that it covers such a small region, the huge “omicron spike” this year spills over the top of the graph!
That’s because I’ll also plot, as red triangles, the mortality rate, the number of deaths per day (per million population).
And that’s the point. UNTIL NOW, the death rate from COVID-19 in the U.S. has always been higher than 1% of the infection rate delayed 20 days. UNTIL NOW.