I wonder whether Cliff Mass can comprehend what he himself has done?
He wants to persuade people that the upward trend of May-through-July temperature in his home state of Washington is “really very little.” How does he do that? Not by analysis, not by any objective criterion of what’s “really very little,” just by saying so:
What about temperature? Here is a plot form the NOAA “Climate at a Glance” website showing May-July temps over Washington State. 2015 is the warmest, although 1958 was close. But there is really very little upward trend.
Still, it seems that the trend is a bit too much for him to be comfortable with, which brings out the truly “cherry” in Cliff:
Let me show highlight by getting rid of 2015 and before 1925 when the record was not reliable. You see much trend? Not really.
Yeah, you got that right. After concluding that the trend is “really very little” from no more analysis than saying so, he reinforces his belief by deliberately removing the data he doesn’t like.
You can’t get much more cherry than that.
I suppose I could point out the the linear trend in May-July temperature in Washington isn’t just upward, it’s statistically significant. I could mention that the trend isn’t actually linear, and that although it’s quite uncertain, a good estimate of the warming rate right now is about 4 deg.F per century. We could argue whether or not it’s really that high (in which case I’d point out that it could in fact be a good bit higher). We could argue whether or not that’s “really very little.”
But, removing the data you don’t like? Getting rid of the earlier, colder stuff with a lame excuse? Getting rid of 2015, apparently because it’s the hottest May-July on record?
That’s classic cherry-picking. It’s a textbook example of cherry-picking. Look it up in the dictionary, Cliff.