Anthony Watts’ blog has rolled out the comedy this week.
For example, there’s this, which reveals just how boring the latest set of climate-scientist emails is. WUWT actually manages to raise suspicion because Kevin Trenberth suggests a gift idea for Susan Solomon. What a scandal! As one reader responds,
August 25, 2012 at 11:30 am
So there was really nothing interesting in the e-mails then?
There’s also this, in which David Middleton first revives the zombie canard that “The homogenized USHCN supports AGW by artificially cooling the past and artificially warming the present,” then proceeds to artificially warm the past and cool the present. He also gets the latest month’s USA48 temperature value wrong — after displaying the NCDC news announcement which prints it plainly, and linking to the data which states it plainly.
Here’s his graph of July temperature in the continental USA:
You can get the data from the same place he got it. It reveals that the label he put on the graph for July 1901 is correct (76.91°F), as well as July 1936 (77.43°F) and July 2006 (77.26°F). But for some reason he labels the July 2012 value “77.4” (which is the value he plots). He feels the need to explain this, saying
I’m sure that the actual 2012 July temperature must have been a few 1/100ths of a degree warmer than 77.4°F; otherwise July 2012 is actually a bit cooler than July 1936, despite the homogenization.
What he should have done is look more closely at the data file, which says 77.56°F. Or he could have looked at his own first graphic — click the image for a larger, clearer view, then read the first sentence of the body of the text:
The really funny part is how Middleton disappears the 2012 record value after getting it wrong.
Rather than calculate a temperature anomaly relative to a fixed reference period, I decided to calculate it against what I think the contemporaneous reference period would have been (AKA a different take).
Example: The 1931-1940 anomaly is calculated against the 1901-1930 reference period.
Yes, what he’s done is take the July values in each decade and subtract the average July value for the preceding 3 decades. That gives him this:
Let’s try an experiment. Take some artificial data consisting of a constant upward trend plus random noise:
Now let’s use Middleton’s method of computing “anomaly”:
Presto chango! If you want to make warming disappear, Harry, Ron, and Hermione combined couldn’t have done better.
But the funniest of all, in my humble opinion, is this, in which Anthony Watts soars to new heights. He’s not satisfied that the Antarctic peninsula has really been warming as fast as is claimed, so he actually tries to blame the increase in the observed data on … (put your coffee cup down) … the “urban heat island” effect. Why didn’t we think of that??? After all, as his last sentence makes clear, “The Antarctic peninsula is the most populated place in Antarctica.”