Political Polls and the “Mode Effect”

I’ve been retrieving polling data (not the detailed stuff, but the overall results) from HuffPost Pollster. While checking the latest, I found an interesting article about a possible “mode effect” in poll results.

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Right and Wrong

There’s yet another paper debunking the so-called “hiatus” in global temperature, making five so far (of which I’m aware), including one of my own. But this one, in my opinion, isn’t helping. In fact I believe it has some very serious problems, some of which make the idea of “hiatus” too easy to reject, while others make it too hard to reject. Although I agree with their overall conclusion — and published that conclusion before they did — I find their evidence completely unconvincing.

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Big Risk

Mike Mann has written a piece for the Huffington Post about the “fat tail” of likely climate sensitivity, what it means for risk, and how discussion about it is being misused. Worth a read.

More Mathturbation

After the last post I expected a firestorm of commentary about Donald Trump. Personally, I’m not very fond of Donald Trump.

Instead, most comments since then have focused on a post by “GreenHeretic” referred to in a comment.

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Change-Point Fun

Lately I’ve been having fun with change-point analysis.

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Here. Now.

Please watch it. Watch the whole thing.

100% consensus

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum recently appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher. He denied the consensus on man-made climate change. It’s what he does. He’s a denier.

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