Non-Linear Trends

Any given time series, say July average temperature in the Moscow region since 1881, might exhibit both short-term (more brief) and long-term (more lasting) patterns of change. The longer-term is certainly something worth knowing about. It might be increasing, or decreasing, or it might not be changing at all. It might have wiggled around a lot but not really gone anywhere until some new factor came into play. But whatever its pattern, we usually identify the longer-term pattern of change with the trend.

What we’re really after is the background level against which temperature variations have their sway. By “trend value” I mean exactly that: the background level at a given moment. If it changes while the nature of the fluctuations remains the same, the probability of record-setting extremes will of course change. When the background level is colder we’re more likely to get cold extremes, and when it’s hotter we’ll get more extreme heat. Pretty simple.

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Hansen’s 1988 Predictions

On another forum entirely, discussion arose of Jim Hansen’s 1988 computer model simulation and its prediction for future temperature change. Talk centered around a graph from this post by the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation):

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What does a hero look like?



Before you read further I’ll warn you that this is a rant which has nothing to do with climate science.

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What We’re Up Against

There’s a post at WUWT which is really a cross-post of this by Harold Ambler. It claims that the NOAA temperature map for this February is “less than accurate.”

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New Mexico Snow

Senator Heinrich of New Mexico mentioned the declining snowpack in his home state during the senate’s recent all-night session about man-made climate change.

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Grading the U.S. Senate: Climate Crisis All-Night Session

I watched a fair amount of the speeches given during the Senate’s all-night session about the threat of man-made climate change. Some of the things talked about were good, some of the things said were not so good.

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California Drought

Despite recent rains, California is still in the midst of crippling drought. In a recent opinion piece by Martin Hoerling the case is made that essentially, man-made climate change has nothing at all to do with the present California drought.

Thus, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that human-induced climate change has played any appreciable role in the current California drought.

I disagree.

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