Reply to TLM

I received a rather lengthy comment from “TLM” on this post. My reply is too long for an in-line response, so here it is.

Thirteen

NOTE: see the UPDATE at the end of the post.

Jeff Masters at Wunderblog (part of Weather Underground) reported that for the lower-48 states of the USA, every one of the last 13 months was in the top third of its historical distribution. He calculated the odds of that happening by random chance, in an unchanging climate, being only 1/3 to the 13th power, or a mere 1 chance out of about 1.6 million. Pretty small odds.

Welcome to the Rest of Our Lives

Watch this:

From Climate Denial Crock of the Week.

Seasons Change

Recently the subject of different trends in different seasons came up. Of course, the astounding heat wave which recently gripped the nation is also on many minds. So I thought I’d look at temperature in the USA (lower 48 states) and see whether or not there are different trends for different seasons. Data are from the National Climate Data Center.

What is “ad hominem”?

It’s this.

Perhaps someone should point this out to Anthony Watts. And the next time he accuses anyone else of ad hominem, perhaps he should be reminded.

How Long?

One of the most often-asked questions about climate data is, “How long a time period do we need to establish a statistically significant trend?”

Sum Fun

A new post on WUWT by S. I. Outcalt concludes that “the modern warming regime ended in 1997.” Outcalt transforms various data sets, and although he refers to his transformation as the “Hurst rescaling” (in order to associate it with the “Hurst exponent”) it’s really just a rescaled version of something statisticians were familiar with long before Hurst, called cumulative sums.

Denier Denier Denier …

It wasn’t that long ago that Nature Climate Science published a paper using the word “denier” to describe those in denial of global warming. Anthony Watts was all up in arms about it, with not one, not two, but three posts expressing outrage.

Hotspot Data

In the last post we discussed the “Northeast hotspot.” It’s a region of the Atlantic coast of North America where sea level rise has accelerated in recent decades, identified by Sallenger et al.

Sea Level Rises … Tisdale Falls

A reader asked whether we might take a look at a recent post by Bob Tisdale on WUWT. Let’s do that, shall we? Incidentally, Tisdale has since created another post on WUWT on the same subject, which is: a paper by Sallenger et al. showing that sea level has recently accelerated in a region of the Atlantic coast, a region they call the “Northeast hot spot,” or NEH.