Sea Ice Forecasts

For several years, I’ve forecast the Arctic sea ice extent to be observed during September (when it reaches its minimum). For the most part my forecasts have been successful, although I was farther off this year than previously because sea ice extent dipped well below the existing trend line — and that’s how I make my predictions, by extending the existing trend line for September sea ice extent, 1 year into the future.

Death by Heat Wave

Since the turn of the millenium, we’ve been struck by some truly notable and very damaging heat waves. Probably foremost in the memory of those who follow such things are the 2003 European heat wave, 2010 in the Moscow region, and just this year in the U.S.

Remember the Alamo

I watched about 8 hours of the 24 Hours of Reality: Dirty Weather Report from Al Gore’s “Climate Reality” project. All in all, I’d say it was excellent. It also made me realize how much more we need to involve the general public, and especially the young adults and near-adults who will bear the brunt of coming climate changes, in our efforts to reverse the lethargy that grips our nation, and to a lesser degree the world, in dealing with the crisis that is global warming.

Extreme Denial

Under the guise of a “big picture” look, WUWT reader “just the facts” purports to show that climate data don’t support the claim of an increase in extreme weather. But he (she?) doesn’t show evidence about extreme anything, just a bunch of graphs, which he got from other sources, followed by the wrong conclusions. Show a graph of, say, global average temperature, then say “doesn’t look like there’s been much global warming” (even though there has been), and conclude “no increase in extreme weather here.” And of course “he” goes “out of his way” to use “scare quotes” at “every opportunity.”

What David Suzuki and I have in common

Rather a lot, actually.

Sea Level and la Niña

There’s an interesting graph on the web site of the Univ. of Colorado sea level page comparing de-trended sea level to the multivariate el Niño index:

In The Wake Of Sandy, A 16-Year Old Climate Activist Speaks Her Mind

by Maya Faison

(re-posted from ClimateProgress)

I am 16 years old and I am currently in my home in Laurelton, Queens. It is day six with no heat, no power and no gas in my mom’s car to escape.

Unnatural Catastrophes

In the last post we looked at counts of weather-related natural catstrophes according to Munich Re, the giant re-insurance corporation. It was mentioned that part of the increasing trend could be due to changes in the way catastrophes are counted, and in the number of people and value of property which is susceptible to such catastrophes. Although Munich Re adjusts their classification each decade to account for this, any such attempt is bound to be imperfect.

But it was also pointed out that Munich Re tracks catastrophes which are not weather-related (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption), classifying them as “geophysical.” Do these geophysical events also show a trend? If so, are they increasing as fast as weather-related catastrophes?

Catastrophes — How Many More?

Many people have already seen a version of this graph from Munich Re, one of the giants of the re-insurance industry:

Cover of the Year

Climate Progess has the story. It’s well worth reading.