Why I will not organize a #YesAllWomen rally

You might have noticed that I take the #YesAllWomen movement very seriously. I also feel like I should be doing more about it. So when I saw on the news that there were #YesAllWomen rallies being organized, and that they were actually getting airtime on TV news, I thought I should organize one. I’ve never done anything like that, so I don’t really know how. I imagined I’d choose a time and place, post some signs and spread the word, get some kind of speaker system so people could be heard, and see who shows up. Maybe as time went on I’d get better at it.

But I’m not going to. Because my wife asked me not to.

Foolish Line

The Foolish Line

Anthony Watts is on a very long list of those who ridicule the threat of sea level rise. As many others have done, he shows a tide gauge record (for Sewell’s Point, near Norfolk Virginia):

He also shows the data from Portsmouth, VA, although it is of shorter duration and doesn’t go past 1990. Then he claims that there is no discernable acceleration in either data set and declares that the rise is linear:

The most important thing to note is that unlike the steeply vertical graph in the WaPo article showing up to 8 feet of projected sea level rise, there is no acceleration visible in either of these two tide gauge graphs. They illustrate the slow, linear, subsidence that Nature has been doing for thousands of years.

Note that he also blames the rise on subsidence — the sinking of the land — which is a real factor in this area but is not the only reason sea level is rising so fast there. That’s “Uncle Willard” for you.

Then Watts declares that he’ll “do the math”:

So, let’s do the math to see if the data and claims match. We’ll use the worst case value from Sewell’s Point tide gauge of 4.44mm/year, which over the last century measured the actual “business as usual” history of sea level in concert with rising greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. with no “mitigation” done in the last century of measurements.

Their claim is for the “business as usual” scenario: “by the end of this century, the sea in Norfolk would rise by 5½feet or more.””

1. At the year 2014, there are 86 years left in this century.
2. 86 years x 4.44 mm/year = 381.84 mm
3. 381.84 mm = 15.03 inches (conversion here)

Apparently Uncle Willard’s idea of “doing the math” is: arithmetic. I’d say it’s rather revealing that one of the things he felt the need to “document” is how to convert mm to inches. Such mad math skillz!

One of the real shams behind his extrapolate-the-linear-trend-to-the-year-2100 method is that there is acceleration in this tide gauge record. But far too many people, including a lot of researchers, have missed it because there’s also deceleration.

Here’s the monthly average data for Sewell’s Point from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, with the seasonal cycle removed by a 4th-order Fourier series:

We’ll start by converting monthly data to annual averages. This too will remove the seasonal cycle, and it will greatly reduce the autocorrelation of the data, making our statistical tests much more accurate.

I’ve included the best-fit straight line (by linear regression), which suggests an overall rise rate of 4.56 mm/yr. But — is the trend really linear?

Many have tried to find acceleration by fitting, not a straight line, but a parabola (a 2nd-degree polynomial). That suggests a very slight acceleration which is not statistically significant. Does that mean Watts is correct, that there’s no discernable acceleration?

The problem with a parabolic model is that it is a constant-acceleration model. Maybe the acceleration isn’t constant. Maybe we need a more complex model to find it with statistical significance. Let’s try all polynomial degrees from 1 (straight line) to 10 (10th-degree polynomial) and use AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) to estimate which is giving the best fit when compensated for the extra degrees of freedom:

The “winner” is the model with lowest AIC, which in this case is the 3rd-degree (cubic) polynomial. Here’s what it suggests is the trend in this tide gauge record:

Interesting! This model (which, by the way, is statistically significant even after correcting for autocorrelation) suggests deceleration early and acceleration late. Of course it’s only a model and maybe (almost certainly in fact) not the best one, but it does prove (in the statistical sense) one thing: that the trend is not a straight line. It’s not. Claiming that it is, is foolish.

What’s far more foolish is using such a model to extrapolate, not just to next year or the next few years, but all the way to the end of the century. Foolish.

Suppose I used the cubic model (demonstrably better than the linear one!) to extrapolate to the end of the century? That model predicts that sea level will rise between now and the end of the century by over 2.6 meters. Yes, that’s meters. Over 2600 mm. Over 100 inches. Over eight and a half feet.

But, honestly, it’s not valid to extrapolate this statistical model to the end of the century. Prediction is hard — especially about the future — and extrapolating simple statistical models far into the future is a very poor way to go about it.

But it seems to be the favorite way to forecast future sea level rise by those who deny the reality, human causation, and/or danger of global warming. Not just Anthony Watts, but the North Carolina state legislature. It’s no surprise that when they do, they choose a statistical model which gives a low forecast: a straight line.

It’s the basis for the “line” that future sea level rise is not going to be much of a problem. I suspect that despite scientific evidence to the contrary, despite the best efforts of actual experts, they will continue to toe the line. A foolish line.

#YesAllWomen

NOTE: There are two updates at the end of this post. Please read them.

If you’re a man, be ashamed. We let this happen.

---

hannah hunt @sw4gbol May 26

#YesAllWomen because on the train a stranger and his friends made rude comments about my breasts & then apologised to my boyfriend, not me

---

You might already have guessed that this post is not about science, or math, or climate change. It’s about the fact that all women live in fear of sexual assault.

Yes.

All.

If you haven’t already, search Twitter for the hashtag #YesAllWomen. Read. If you have already, read some more.

I already know that #NotAllMen are sexual abusers or potential rapists. If that’s your attitude — then FUCK YOU. Because #YesAllMenAreTheProblem. Except maybe Jimmy Carter.

Don’t give me any of that “not me” crap. I am so fucking mad, I am so upset, I’m in no mood for any apologist shit.

I’m a white man — I’m even an old white man. But I have despised racism since I was a small white boy. I’m not Jewish, but I have despised anti-semitism since I was a tiny little gentile. I won’t put up with it, and if we’re at a party and you make some casual offhand joke, some witty remark, rooted in racism or anti-semitism, I’m calling you out. I’m calling you the asshole you are. Loud enough that everyone can hear. I’m making such a big stink about it that somebody — maybe you, maybe me, but somebody — will probably be asked to leave. Every goddamn time. That’s the kind of shit I will not put up with.

But I’ve been in the company of men — and women — when sexist remarks are made, belittling women, objectifying them, even “jokingly” legitimizing rape. But I usually don’t raise a stink about it. I let it slide. “Boys will be boys.” Yes, I have been part of the problem.

Women are afraid. They live in fear. If you don’t believe me, then you need to go read the #YesAllWomen comments. Read a lot of them. Read some more. Keep reading the stories, from real victims, until you’re so fucking mad you can’t see straight. Until you’re so upset that tears come to your eyes.

And if you’re male, keep reading those stories until you feel ashamed. We should be.

Nobody should have to live in fear. Of course I’m not a rapist, most men aren’t, but we — the men of the world — are running the show, and we let this happen. Some men are the perpetrators, ALL women are the victims, but we are responsible. We made the world what it is. Right now, I don’t much like the way it is.

If you’re a male, and you’re not the 39th president of the United States, then you are the problem. Yeah. I said it.

Don’t comment here telling me how you would never do that. Tell the asshole who thinks it’s funny.

More important, let’s change the world. I don’t know how best to do that, but I suggest that step 1 is to join an organization which is dedicated to changing the way women are treated. It’s called “NOW” — the National Organization for Women.

Even if you’re not willing (or able) to march in a protest, join anyway. Send them the fucking membership dues. They’ll put it to good use. If we should meet at a party and conversation turns to this topic, and I protest that even if you’re not an abuser you’re still part of the problem — whip out that NOW membership card, hold it high, and say, quietly but proudly, “Not me.”

Join NOW. Even if all you do is donate membership dues it’ll help. And I don’t give a flying fuck if you’ve never done anything to oppress women. If you’re a man, and you’re not the 39th president of the United States, I regard you as part of the problem.

And (it’s a shame I even have to say this) it’s high time we passed the equal rights amendment. It is almost incomprehensible that this isn’t part of our constitution. ERA NOW.

If you’re a woman, join NOW. Speak up. And (sad but true) don’t forget to protect yourself.

If you’re a man, join NOW. Speak up. And (sad but true) be ashamed. Be very ashamed.

UPDATE
Of all the things I’ve seen or read via the #YesAllWomen hashtag, this is the one that ripped my guts out:

UPDATE 2:

I ‘m disappointed that there are men commenting here who are so outraged at the unfairness of being called “part of the problem” they can’t let it pass unchallenged — but don’t seem at all outraged that women live under the constant threat of abuse.

For those who have whined about how unfair it is for me to lay the blame at the feet of all men, but apparently still haven’t actually listened to what women are saying, here’s what one woman has to say:

… I wondered if he would still be there when I returned alone, late at night, when the station would be desolate, and started charting another route home. The experience of feeling simultaneously threatened and unable to speak, of feeling as if I would be persecuting this man who was committing a sexual impropriety were I to pipe up and tell him to knock it off, was unsettlingly familiar.

Do you get that? “Unsettlingly familiar.”

Here’s what women are saying on twitter:

---

Hannah ?@bluntlystyles 24m

#YesAllWomen If more men said “don’t be that guy” to each other instead of “not all men” to women… what a wonderful world this could be.

---

keara ? ?@kearalong 35s

#YesAllWomen because assault didn’t have as much a lasting effect as being told I was lying about it did

---

Eliane Helvrich ?@ElianeHelvrich 38s

#YesAllWomen Because I’m sick of being called ‘crazy feminist bitch’ every time I talk about equal rights.

---

Alexia ?@Alexiasmailbox 43s

#YesAllWomen Bc is it still socially “acceptable” to declare I am NOT a feminist. Is it ok to declare I am racist?

---

angel ? ?@angeloxoxo 59s

#yesallwomen cause I’ve seen it happen to my own mother

---

Heidi ?@TheDreadess 2m

Because #YesAllWomen is a human rights issue and not about hating men … stop diverting your attention … half the human race is in pain

---

Amphy64 ?@Amphy64 1m

1]I came to the slow, sad realisation that my male flatmates didn’t think twice about using the 24hr Uni library, but I had to. #YesAllWomen

---

#YesAllWomen because ‘I have a boyfriend’ is more effective than ‘I’m not interested’—men respect other men more than my right to say no

---

Because I’ve already rehearsed “Take whatever you want, just don’t hurt me.” #YesAllWomen

---

#YesAllWomen because every time I try to say that I want gender equality I have to explain that I don’t hate men.

---

Men’s greatest fear is that women will laugh at them, while women’s greatest fear is that men will kill them. -Margaret Atwood #YesAllWomen

---

Because in about 30 states, rapists whose victims choose to keep the baby can get parental rights, like weekend visitation. WTF #YesAllWomen

---

#yesallwomen because apparently the clothes I wear is a more valid form of consent than the words I say

---

I repeat: the fact that there are male victims isn’t proof it’s not misogyny. It’s evidence that misogyny hurts men too. #YesAllWomen

---

The most shameful thing is that these comments were so easy to find. There are, literally, millions like them to choose from. Millions.

Here’s a comment from a man who I think actually “gets it”

---

Charles W Smith, MD ?@edocarkansas 23s

Good discussion about misogyny w/my 26 y.o. driving yesterday to her wedding Sat. She is often fearful. We men need to reflect! #yesallwomen

---

For those who still entertain the thought that saying ALL women deal with fear is overblown, or that I have no right to speak for “all women,” I’m re-posting this. This is what a woman has to say:

#YesAllWomen

Because I didn’t know I was being harassed.

Because I didn’t know it wasn’t ok.

Yes All Women.

I join this hashtag because I consider myself lucky, because I have always been surrounded by strong role models, loving family, supportive friends. I have never been raped. I have never been molested. All of my sexual experiences have been clear choices that I have made and all with people who respected me.

I am lucky.

I am tall, I am strong, I do not physically look like the sort of girl who can be easily overpowered.

Yes All Women

When we were 18, in dance clubs, sober, men grinding on us, they often grabbed our hands, put them on their crotches to feel their erections. “Look what you do to me.” I’d recoil, they didn’t seem to care. But still, that was the preferred comment, because sometimes it was the hand placed on the crotch with “how are you going to take care of this” or “you better finish this problem you started.” I’d pull my hand away, turning around, looking for someone to take refuge in and finding no friendly faces, walk casually but too quickly to the women’s room and hide.

That’s why there are couches in the women’s room, by the way. Because sometimes that is the only safe place for a woman to be. Let her sit down while she figures out how to time it so she can run out of the club but isn’t stuck standing too long exposed on the street corner waiting for the bus.

Yes All Women.

I didn’t know that was harassment.

Yes, when the older tennis pro I had just met led me to an unlit field and pushed me down, I knew that was wrong. I knew kicking him was right and I knew I was lucky that the kick hit, lucky that I had the self-esteem to kick, lucky that I had the presence of mind, lucky that my legs were long. I knew I could have told someone about that, that I should have told someone, but all I could really think was, “why did I go on a walk with him, I know better than that, I can’t let anyone know that I was so stupid.”

But when the boys at the club asked me how I was going to “take care of their hard-ons,” I thought that was just the price you paid for wanting to go dancing. And yes, I did want boys to flirt with me. I hoped someone would notice me and tell me I was pretty and I felt that’s what I deserved for that desire. That’s how boys flirted, let me know I was attractive, by telling me I owed them sex because the sight of me aroused them. That seemed normal.

Yes All Women

Because I don’t want any girls to think that is normal. Because I don’t want any girls to think it’s ok that their boss tells them they should “bend over more.” Because no one should feel they have to laugh when a guy grabs their ass and tells them “not to be so uptight.” Because being followed down an alley by someone saying he’d “love to lick that pussy” is not something that should be shrugged off as just what happens when you have a certain bra size.

Because the stories that I remember so casually are things that appall the incredible, kind, intelligent men that I know and love. Because they are shocked and because I am too, at how unquestioningly we, myself and my friends, internalized these things as the simple prices we paid for living in the world as women.

Yes All Women

Because I can talk about these things. Because I can talk about these things for the many women who can not, who dare not.

Because I am lucky.

Yes.

ALL.

Women.

Non-Linear Trends

Any given time series, say July average temperature in the Moscow region since 1881, might exhibit both short-term (more brief) and long-term (more lasting) patterns of change. The longer-term is certainly something worth knowing about. It might be increasing, or decreasing, or it might not be changing at all. It might have wiggled around a lot but not really gone anywhere until some new factor came into play. But whatever its pattern, we usually identify the longer-term pattern of change with the trend.

What we’re really after is the background level against which temperature variations have their sway. By “trend value” I mean exactly that: the background level at a given moment. If it changes while the nature of the fluctuations remains the same, the probability of record-setting extremes will of course change. When the background level is colder we’re more likely to get cold extremes, and when it’s hotter we’ll get more extreme heat. Pretty simple.

Hansen’s 1988 Predictions

On another forum entirely, discussion arose of Jim Hansen’s 1988 computer model simulation and its prediction for future temperature change. Talk centered around a graph from this post by the GWPF (Global Warming Policy Foundation):

What does a hero look like?

This:

Before you read further I’ll warn you that this is a rant which has nothing to do with climate science.

What We’re Up Against

There’s a post at WUWT which is really a cross-post of this by Harold Ambler. It claims that the NOAA temperature map for this February is “less than accurate.”

New Mexico Snow

Senator Heinrich of New Mexico mentioned the declining snowpack in his home state during the senate’s recent all-night session about man-made climate change.

Grading the U.S. Senate: Climate Crisis All-Night Session

I watched a fair amount of the speeches given during the Senate’s all-night session about the threat of man-made climate change. Some of the things talked about were good, some of the things said were not so good.

California Drought

Despite recent rains, California is still in the midst of crippling drought. In a recent opinion piece by Martin Hoerling the case is made that essentially, man-made climate change has nothing at all to do with the present California drought.

Thus, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that human-induced climate change has played any appreciable role in the current California drought.

I disagree.