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Search Results for: autocorrelation
Foolish Line
The Foolish Line Anthony Watts is on a very long list of those who ridicule the threat of sea level rise. As many others have done, he shows a tide gauge record (for Sewell’s Point, near Norfolk Virginia): He also … Continue reading
Posted in Global Warming
California Drought
Despite recent rains, California is still in the midst of crippling drought. In a recent opinion piece by Martin Hoerling the case is made that essentially, man-made climate change has nothing at all to do with the present California drought. … Continue reading
Antarctic Sea Ice Increase
There’s no doubt that the amount of sea ice in the Arctic has decreased, by a lot. I would even describe the decrease as “staggering.” Meanwhile, the amount of sea ice in the Antarctic has trended in the opposite direction, … Continue reading
Posted in Global Warming
Smooth 2
[Note: please see the UPDATE at the end of this post] In the last post we looked at smoothing data by fitting a polynomial, and by fitting a Fourier series. We found that we could control the degree of “smoothness” … Continue reading
Candy from a Baby
A new paper by Lewis and Karoly (2013, GRL, doi: 10.1002/grl.50673) concludes that man-made global warming has increased the odds of hot summer weather such as Australia suffered recently. The paper states, “The human contribution to the increased odds of … Continue reading
Arctic Sea Ice Loss, part 1
Although it’s useful and sometimes interesting to refute silly ideas about Arctic sea ice loss (such as the claim that it is “stabilizing” or even in “recovery”), it’s far more interesting scientifically to consider what available data actually tell us … Continue reading
Ice Cover is Not “Stabilizing”
NOTE: for a brief, non-technical summary of this post see the UPDATE at the end. To get there, go to the full post (not just the blog’s home page), then click here. Real data are the combination of signal and … Continue reading
Cherry-Picking is Child’s Play
Anybody can do it. Fake “skeptics” of global warming do it all the time. One of the latest and most extreme — this one is a real doozy — comes from John Coleman. Of course it’s regurgitated by Anthony Watts.
Theil-Sen
A reader recently inquired about using the Theil-Sen slope to estimate trends in temperature data, rather than the more usual least-squares regression. The Theil-Sen estimator is a non-parametric method to estimate a slope (perhaps more properly, a “distribution-free” method) which … Continue reading
Posted in climate change, Global Warming, mathematics
Tagged Global Warming, mathematics
Fun with averages and trends
Lots of time series, especially in geophysics, exhibit the phenomenon of autocorrelation. This means that not just the signal (if nontrivial signal is present), even the noise is more complicated than the simple kind in which each noise value is … Continue reading
Posted in mathematics
Open Mind 