By Request: Validation

Per request, I’ve tested the model of global temperature with el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations. It was suggested using a 15-year time span as a “hold-out” period for validation, but I decided to use longer hold-out period. Hence the model was fit with data from 1951 through 1989, and the period from 1990 to the present to investigate whether or not the model could match data with which it was not trained. I also decided to do this test with the NASA GISS data set.

By Request: Adjusted Satellite (and Surface) Data

By request, I’ve computed the estimated influence of el Niño, volcanic aerosols, and solar variations on both surface temperature data and satellite data.

NPR Science Friday: the Madhouse Effect

Climate scientist Mike Mann will be a guest on NPR Science Friday (at about 2:40 pm today) to discuss, among other things, how crazy climate denial can get. You can find it online here.

Divergence between Bob Tisdale and Proper Analysis

Bob Tisdale has a new post at WUWT about a supposed “divergence” between temperature at Earth’s surface and in the lower troposphere.

Bait and Switch

A new post at WUWT claims to “debunk” claims that “human caused warming doubled western U.S. area burned since 1984.” It was in response to a story in the LA Times of new research in PNAS (Publications of the National Academy of Science).

Zombies

As I mentioned earlier, some denier comments were submitted to the post about Extreme Denial. This blog isn’t about spreading denier claims, it’s about exposing them, so their comments will get exactly the focus they deserve.

Zombie Comments

The last post brought out some deniers submitting comments. They seem to think they may have some “surprises” in store for me. Not so; they’re just reviving *other* zombie arguments.

What’s definitely *not* a surprise is that they want to change the subject. It was: the use of extremes as cherry-picked starting points to mislead people about the trend. But they want to talk about other things … I guess that mud isn’t working for them any more.

The surprise might be for them, because I’ll expose the fallacy of their claims in an upcoming post. But that will wait until after the weekend.

Extreme Denial

Here’s global temperature anomaly (annual averages) since 1951, according to data from NASA (the year 2016 isn’t yet complete, so that value is for the year-to-date):

Trump Lies, Handlers Try to Change the Subject

Early in Monday night’s presidential debate Hillary Clinton mentioned that Donald Trump had said global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. Trump interrupted (he does that a lot) to protest that he never said that.

Trump’s problem is that he said it on Twitter — so it’s right there, for everybody to see (and we’ve seen a lot about it, many times). Denying that he said it, was an outright lie. There’s no doubt. Denying it when it’s been seen (and repeated) so often by so many people, is just plain stupid.

It’s the Ice, Stupid

Earlier this month the WUWT blog treated us to a bizarre post about how this year didn’t set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent (it only came in 2nd-lowest), in spite of “two very strong storms.” Doubling down, they offer another post trumpeting “record Arctic sea ice growth in September.” Which makes me wonder: are those guys trying to make themselves look like idiots?