TREND Australia TREND summer TREND temperature TREND

Some people have wondered about the trend in Australia’s summertime daily high temperatures.

The last post discussed Australia’s hottest summer (the latest) and Jennifer Marohasy’s attempt to pervert the truth. But I didn’t talk about the trend, which must have surprised regular readers because I tend to emphasize that. A lot. I did show this graph:

Bushfire and Homophobia

One of the things making wildfire/bushfire worse, contributing to the current conflagration in Australia, is the increase of daily high temperatures. It increases the Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), the difference between how much water vapor the air can hold and how much it does hold. When VPD is high, it can suck the moisture right out of potential fuels big and small, which increases the frequency and severity of fire dramatically.

The data are clear, that for daily high temperature last year (2019) was the hottest on record for Australia:

Trend: Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue ride the crazy train

A reader asked that I estimate the trend in the JRA-55 data for global temperature, because it is touted by climate deniers Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue. Let’s have a look. Here’s the data:

Happy Birthday Greta

Precipitation Trend in New South Wales

Comments on the last post speculated that rainfall in Australia might show a trend if one looked at smaller regions than the entire continent. In particular, some wondered about the history of precipitation in New South Wales (NSW, one of the areas hardest hit by bushfires), and one reader was kind enough to point to data from Australia’s BoM (Bureau of Meteorology), featuring this map of the trends in rainfall since 1970 throughout NSW:

Almost every part of the state shows a declining trend. But how significant is the trend?

Zero Hour in Oz: THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE

The bushfire season in Australia has been horrific. More horrific than any before. Axios offers a glimpse of what people are going through, while Metro reports that it has affected wildlife too — wildfires killing almost half a billion animals. Yes, I said billion.

The West Burns and the East Drowns … so it averages out, right?

Willis Eschenbach is wrong on both counts when he announces at the WUWT blog that “… according to NOAA, there’s been no increase in either droughts or wet periods in the US since 1895 …”

Silent Night

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Australia has endured its hottest day ever recorded, as hundreds of violent bushfires continue to rage across the country.

One class act to another

.@GretaThunberg, don’t let anyone dim your light. Like the girls I’ve met in Vietnam and all over the world, you have so much to offer us all. Ignore the doubters and know that millions of people are cheering you on.

— Michelle Obama (@MichelleObama) December 13, 2019

Second-Least-Cold Year

At the risk of repeating myself, I’ll repeat myself. Global temperature is a combination of trend and fluctuation.

The fluctuations make it jitter about from year to year (or month to month, or day to day, or whatever), but the trend of late has been steadily upward. It’s called global warming (although some might prefer “global un-cooling”). We even know some (but not all!) of the causes of the fluctuations; things like the el Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), massive volcanic eruptions, and variations in the output of the sun itself. But the fluctuations don’t last. The trend, however, continues upward unabated.

Earth’s hottest year on record remains 2016, when the warming from man-made climate change combined with extra heat from the strong el Niño of that year. But even without el Niño, this year is likely to come in a strong 2nd. Here are yearly averages since 1950 from NASA, with the 2019 value year-to-date (January through October):