Seven Months Ago

Anthony Watts is taking a poll of predictions for this summer’s minimum in Arctic sea ice. Some of you might want to join in the fun.

Warts and All

Legend says that when Oliver Cromwell had his portrait painted by Sir Peter Lely (who had done the royal portrait of Charles I of England, and would later do the royal portrait of Charles II), Cromwell so disdained that personal vanity typical of royalty, that he instructed Lely to paint him as he was, “warts and all.”

Hot … and Wet

The future will be hot, at least, hotter than the present. But temperature isn’t the only thing that will change with global warming — so will the water cycle. Some places will become drier, some wetter. In fact, some have already become wetter.

Fake Forcing

Willis Eschenbach has a new post on WUWT. It’s actually a follow-up to this one, which we’ll look at in detail. In it he claims that the temperature result from the GISS modelE is just 0.3 times the forcing, i.e., it’s simply a linear function of the input forcing. That one is a follow-up to this one, in which he discovers that the model output is not simply a linear function of the input forcing. Yet in its follow-up he finds that it is! Problem is, the “forcing” he uses to get this result is a fake.

Five Years

We’ve often looked at some of the tricks deniers use to make global warming seem nonexistent. But perhaps the most common of all is to focus on the noise rather than the signal in data. And perhaps their favorite way to do so is to choose a time span so short that the signal is almost invisible while the noise dominates. That’s their strategy — make noise.

Ice Out

We’ve already seen how ice-out on the Tanana River in Alaska has been trending earlier in the year. We’ve also seen a lame attempt at WUWT to suggest that it’s because of anything but warming temperatures. Ooh ooh — is it the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Uh, is it urban heat island effect from the giant city of Fairbanks, Alaska 40 miles away? No it isn’t. What could it be? Hmmm, could it be … Satan?

Favorite Denier Tricks, or How to Hide the Incline

WUWT has a post by Bob Tisdale, based on one of Tisdale’s own posts. The theme is that ocean heat content (OHC) hasn’t risen as fast as GISS model projections. Watts even says “we have a GISS miss by a country mile.” But Tisdale can only support his claim by using tricks to hide the incline. In fact he uses two of the favorite tricks of deniers. One is a clever, but hardly new, trick called “cherry picking.” The other is ridiculously simple: misrepresentation.

Gullible’s Island

Judging by this post at WUWT, one could easily get the impression that changes in ice breakup dates on the Tanana River in Alaska aren’t due to warming. Here’s the record:

Hell and High Water

Europe is broiling and the U.S. is reeling.

The China Syndrome

Some would like to imply that the problem of CO₂ emissions is mainly due to China and India. They are, after all, the 1st- and 3rd-largest total emitters as of 2009, and their CO₂ emissions are growing fast. In fact I often hear the complaint that nothing anybody does will make any difference unless China and India go along with the plan. I think this is a just an excuse to argue against doing anything, and I think it’s a lousy excuse.