Global Warming Rates (by request)

A reader asked for the actual rates at which various global temperature data sets (featured in this post) are increasing, after one removes the estimated impact of ENSO (the el Niño southern oscillation), volcanic eruptions, and solar variations.

I welcome such requests, but caution strongly that I can’t fill them all, or even most of them. It’s too much work. But in this case, it’s a pretty simple request and I’ll go for it.

HUGE Problem with Jevrejeva et al. Sea Level Data

Global sea level before the satellite era is estimated from individual tide gauge records, which are combined to reconstruct a global average. One of the reconstructions climate deniers love best is from Jevrejeva et al., and the reason is obvious: because it gives a result they like.

But there are problems with the methodology used by Jevrejeva et al. HUGE problems.

Surface Temperature and Satellite Temperature

One of the myths about temperature data is the ludicrous notion that the data for atmospheric temperature from satellites are better than the surface data from thermometers. We’ve heard this from people who should know better, like John Christy and Judith Curry, and climate denier politicians like Ted Cruz. The problem is, it just ain’t so.

But before I get to that —
I know I’ve posted about the “pause that never was” quite a bit lately, and how desperate climate deniers are to hold on to this figment of their imagination. I can’t help but share with you the most revealing comment about the “pause that never was” that I’ve seen in a long time (maybe ever). In a post on the WUWT blog about the latest satellite data from UAH, the very first comment was this:

RH February 1, 2018 at 10:03 am

Do we start a new pause? Or does the temperature lower enough to continue the old pause?

God forbid you should wait for enough actual data before declaring a new pause. Even if this is a case of “Poe’s Law,” it worked … as the follow-up comments illustrate. Climate deniers aren’t just desperate. They’re delusional.

Global Warming: the Relentless Trend

When it comes to global warming, recent years have been so hot that it worries even those who deny the problem exists.

No one more desperately needs global warming to end than those most against doing anything about it. That’s why they cling so tight to the notion of a “pause” in global warming, a “pause” that was never more than a false impression, hoping others would believe the myth that it had all somehow stopped. Its death by thermometer has hit them hard.

How to FAKE a “Pause” in Global Warming

Climate deniers love to declare a “pause” in global warming. What they don’t seem to care for is finding out the truth about whether or not it’s real. When it becomes so obvious global warming hasn’t paused that claiming it’s still paused becomes untenable, they’ll declare that it did — for a while, at least — and that it has already begun another “pause” — with the same amount of real evidence as before. None, that is.

No problem! Just fake it. But how? All you fellas out there with deniers to impress, it’s easy to do, just follow these steps.

Is CO2 Still Accelerating?

Not only is the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere on the rise, the rise itself has been getting faster — so CO₂ concentration has been accelerating. A reader recently asked whether or not there’s any sign of its increase flattening out, or even stopping its acceleration.

Here’s the CO₂ data from Mauna Loa:

Sheldon Walker and the non-existent “slowdown”

Sheldon Walker has made yet another post at WUWT claiming there was a “slowdown” in global temperature recently, this time titled “Proof that the recent global warming slowdown is statistically significant (correcting for autocorrelation).”

The new post, rather than include “at the 99%% confidence level” at the end of its title as did the last one, has “correcting for autocorrelation.” There are two reasons for the title change. First, I’m not the only one who pointed out that his failure to account for autocorrelation invalidated his previous result; so did a brave few of the blog commenters. Kudos to Sheldon for not being so deep in denial that he rejected this fact.

Second, his new results (accounting for autocorrelation) didn’t seem to satisfy at the 99% confidence level, so he’s lowered the requirement to 90% confidence. The rationale he gives for doing so is silly; it truly amounts to nothing more than finding significance using higher confidence levels is hard. Nick Stokes points out, rather pointedly, “So you lower the level until you get a “significant” result?”

Jet Stream – Sea Ice + Polar Vortex = ???

A fascinating idea has emerged, that when heat waves or cold waves happen, global warming might make them last longer. Some think that this has already begun, an idea suggested by the recent long-lasting cold wave to hit the eastern U.S. It has also been implicated in some recent extreme hot times, such as the Moscow heat wave in 2010, notable not just for its extremity but for its long duration.

Sheldon Walker and the non-existent “pause”

Sheldon Walker seems to be desperate — desperate to believe that global warming exhibited a “slowdown” recently. His latest attempt to prop up his faulty belief is a new post at WUWT titled “Proof that the recent global warming slowdown is statistically significant (at the 99% confidence level)“. He mainly demonstrates that he has a lot to learn about statistics, but isn’t learning and doesn’t know how inadequate is his own knowledge.

2017: Hottest Year with No el Niño

Last year (2017) will not be the hottest year on record; it’s likely to be 2nd-hottest. But it will be the hottest which was not enhanced by el Niño conditions.

El Niño is the “warm phase” of a natural oscillation of wind patterns over the Pacific ocean, which increases the amount of heat transferred from ocean to atmosphere. When that happens, there’s more heat in the atmosphere so surface temperatures increase (actually, temperature of the air near the surface, which is what matters for land-based living things). When El Niño subsides, the warming subsides too. The opposite face of the coin is la Niña, when heat tends to go from atmosphere to ocean and surface temperatures tend to be cooler. Together, they make up the el Niño southern oscillation (ENSO).