COVID-19: delta variant

The state of Maine is suffering through an explosion of COVID-19 cases, now that the delta-variant has arrived. It’s especially a pity because we were doing so well when July began, with only about 20 cases per day per million population — but now we’re up to nearly 120. It’s putting a real strain on the health care system.

As bad as it is in Maine, it’s worse in every other state in the U.S.

The worst, by far, are Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida, with over 1,000 new cases per day per million population:

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7 responses to “COVID-19: delta variant

  1. Apologies. Wrong link…

    • My understanding of the Optimal Fingerprinting technique as described, for instance, by Huntingford, Stott, Allen, and Lambert (ref below), is that the core algorithm relies upon a solution of the Total Least Squares (TLS) problem, something which is typically done using a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and yields deterministic minimum norm answers. In other words, there is no reliance upon the statistical character of the signals at all. (See second reference for TLS and SVD.)

      However Allen and Tett justified their procedure in 1999, radical improvements to it were quickly made, producing the results and methods used today. That Allen and Tett (1999) are cited in the history of the technique is simply a bow to scholastic priority and it does not mean today’s methods parrot the Allen and Tett (1999) techniques. Indeed, the link to Allen and Tett (1999) was certainly broken by the time Allen and Stott (2003) and Stott, Allen, and Jones (2003) were published. In fact, this history is recounted in Hannart, Ribes, Naveau (2014).

      So, that’s my take: McKitrick is beating a dead horse. And his scholarship is pathetically bad.

      Huntingford, Chris, Peter A. Stott, Myles R. Allen, and F. Hugo Lambert. “Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change.” Geophysical Research Letters 33, no. 5 (2006).

      G. H. Golub, C. F. Van Loan, Matrix Computations, 3rd edition, 1996, section 12.3, “Total Least Squares”, pp 595-600.

      Allen, Myles R., and Peter A. Stott. “Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, Part I: Theory.” Climate Dynamics 21, no. 5-6 (2003): 477-491.

      Stott, Peter A., Myles R. Allen, and Gareth S. Jones. “Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting. Part II: application to general circulation models.” Climate dynamics 21, no. 5 (2003): 493-500.

      Hannart, Alexis, Aurélien Ribes, and Philippe Naveau. “Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty.” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 4 (2014): 1261-1268.

  2. Just what the world needs right now, more bullshit from M&M.

  3. What is the story with Florida? Cases rapidly rising, but deaths rapidly falling (at least according to Worldometers graphs)?

    [Response: In Florida, the death rate is NOT low, in fact it’s one of the highest in the country. But Florida doesn’t report daily, only weekly, and doesn’t report by-county deaths, only statewide … in general, they’ve done whatever they could to confuse things. I guess governor DeSantis doesn’t want people to know what’s *really* happening there.]

  4. Does anyone outside the denial-o-sphere really care what Ross McKitrick is up to?

  5. cf–what is McK up to? What he has ALWAYS been up to. Throwing FUD at the wall hoping some sticks.