COVID-19 Back to School: Is Georgia Ready?

In my opinion, schools should not re-open unless the case load (the number of new cases per day per million population) is under 40. I call this the “green zone.” At that level, effective contact tracing really works — that, and a mandatory mask order, is how you stay in the green zone.

The latest 7-day average for the state of Georgia (as of July 10) is 279. That’s in what I call the “red zone” (> 250). It means “red alert.”

Here’s another view, simply making the y-axis into a “logarithmic plot” (note the numbers on the left-hand axis)

After the inital infestation, Georgia didn’t do very well … only “OK”. They flattened the curve, but unlike New England states (especially New York) they didn’t drive it down. Result: when they started their re-opening steps they weren’t ready. Result: case numbers explode. Result: hospitalizations increase. Result: deaths increase.

Georgia’s re-opening steps have been a disaster. In less than a month, they went from the “yellow alert” zone to the “red alert” zone.

Now for the really bad news. Driving the curve down takes a lot longer than pushing it up. If Georgia returns to full lockdown, it will still take them about two months to get back down where they were just three weeks ago.

Georgia is not ready to re-open schools.

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