Over 2400 Americans died yesterday from Coronavirus. Here are the new deaths per day (“daily mortality”) in the USA since March 10, 2020 (note: this is an exponential plot)
As bad as that news is, there is good news too. Notice that the daily mortality has levelled off. It might still be rising, but then again it might not. But it’s definitley not increasing at the same rate it was before.
There was a time, from about the 10th to the 25th of March, when daily mortality was rising at a rate of about 30% per day. At that rate, it was doubling about every 2½ days. Now, it might have stopped rising altogether.
The reason is: social distancing and the lockdown. That’s the reason the death toll isn’t WAY higher than it is. That’s the reason the death toll isn’t still rising fast.
Here’s a mathematical approximation of the daily mortality (a “piecewise linear fit”)
It shows visually, and more to the point it can confirm statistically, that yes the rate of increase dropped, and that for the past week or so, there’s no evidence of continued increase. It might be — and then again, it might not.
And that is superb news, because without social distancing and the lockdown, there is no doubt that the daily death rate would still be rising.
The reason the lockdown is working: you.
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