In just the last two days, over 3900 people died from Coronavirus in the U.S.A. The total U.S. death toll now stands at 14,788 (and rising). [Note: day 10 is March 10, 2020.]
The number of confirmed cases stands over 400,000 — but only a fraction of actual cases are confirmed because so few people get tested.
We can plot both total cases, and total fatalities, on the same plot using a logarithmic scale:
Let’s take a look, not at the total death toll, but at the new deaths per day:
It too appears to be rising exponentially, but we see something interesting on a logarithmic plot, both for new cases per day and new deaths per day:
The good news — and it is amazingly good news — is that the rate of increase, in new cases and in new fatalities, has slowed. The difference is statistically significant. The slowdown in the spread of coronovirus, and subsequent deaths, is from social distancing. It’s a fact: it’s impossible for social distancing not to slow the spread of the disease.
It took this long for two reasons. First: there’s a delay between slowing the spread of the disease and slowing fatalities, simply because it takes people time to die. Second, we (as a nation) were so late adopting preventive measures.
The daily death toll is still on the rise, but it had been doubling about every 2.5 days (the “doubling time”). Now it’s taking over 5 days to double (on average, that is). That gives us twice as much time to prepare for that burden. We need it.
So thanks to all of you participating in social distancing. Yes it makes a difference. Anyone who tells you different …
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