It’s been a while since Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) took global temperature time series and removed our best estimate of the changes due to known fluctuating factors, the el Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), aerosols from volcanic eruptions, and variations in the output of the sun. After removing fluctuations of known origin, what was left over was a very steady rise in global temperature.
I’ve improved (I believe) the method by allowing for more detail in the response to ENSO. I now allow both a “prompt” (not necessarily immediate) and “more delayed” response, as well as a seasonal pattern to the ENSO response. I’ll probably expound on those details at some point, but not now. Now, let’s look at the results.