There’s a lot we don’t know about hurricanes, and a helluva lot we don’t know about how climate change is going to affect them.
Will they happen more or less often? There’s no scientific consensus, we just don’t really know. When they do happen — will they be stronger or weaker on average? A consensus has emerged that they’ll get stronger, more cat4 and cat5 hurricanes compared to cat1 and cat2. Will we see a whole new class, the fierce cat6? Just speculation.
But there’s one thing we can put in the “fer-sure” category, and that’s this: hot ocean water superpowers hurricanes. Talk to the National Hurricane Center. Talk to Kerry Emanuel at MIT.