In response to my post, you said my analysis is “very weak” and that I used “an inappropriate statistical approach that did not consider the variability of the time series.”
The Theil-Sen trend estimate is robust, in fact it’s what statisticians call “non-parametric” (although I prefer the name “distribution free”). Such methods are specifically designed to account for the variability of the time series. What is your basis for stating otherwise?
What method would you prefer? What method did you use?
Cliff Mass has joined the ranks of those who want you to believe that California’s wildfire problem isn’t getting worse.
Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., also known as the “lower 48 states” (I’ll just call it “USA”):
Pay careful attention to Mike Mann; when asked about “this is the new normal,” he replies “It’s actually worse than that.”
We all know that Californians are suffering from terrible wildfires. Thousands of buildings have been destroyed. Many have lost their lives, including firefighters, including a great-grandmother who died with her great-grandchildren. It is a tragedy.
So what did Donald Trump, president of the U.S., have to say? This:
There has been a “firestorm” of angry responses to his ignorance and callousness. I think this one is particularly apropos:
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With the devastating wildfires terrorizing California, climate deniers are doing everything they can to try to persuade people that it’s no big deal, and even the big deals have nothing to do with man-made climate change. To believe them, you have to believe some ridiculous things — like the notions that hotter temperatures and more drought have nothing to do with wildfires.
NCEI (the National Center for Environmental Information) has some fascinating data about the number, and cost, of billion-dollar climate related disasters in the U.S. since 1980. Cost estimates are adjusted for CEI (the Consumer Price Index) in order to make older costs comparable to their modern counterparts.
I happened across a video about global warming basics, which I think is pretty good. What’s your opinion?