Our old friend Sheldon Walker showed up again, asking what it would take to convince me there was a “pause” (or “hiatus” or even “slowdown”). Evidently he didn’t like my assertion of the absence of a “pause” in my latest video. He ended by asking whether there’s no evidence I would ever accept — I think that was his way of planting the idea.
There isn’t. I’ve tried, damn hard, to find some statistical test which would establish a change in trend recently. Result: not.
What does not pass muster is “looks like.” Statistics is littered with the carcasses of ideas based on data that “looks like” something, but don’t pass muster statistically and, when further data arrived, were abundantly clearly wrong. It’s a classic and crucial lesson in statistics that “looks like” just don’t cut it — but is an excellent way to deceive yourself.
You wanna know what would convince me? Statistics, done right.
I’ve made that plain, often. I’m sick of comments asking what it would take, when I’ve already answered that question many times over. Pay attention.
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