WUWT has a post in which Neil Frank proclaims that Hillary Clinton is no hurricane expert but he is. (Frank’s post was originally published on The Daily Caller, but was reprinted on WUWT with permission.) He objects to Clinton having recently said that “Hurricane Matthew was likely more destructive because of climate change.”
He then launches into quite a few of what he passes off as “facts,” which aren’t. Despite having worked at the National Hurricane Center for quite a long time, he’s no expert on climate change, and when it comes to sea level rise, he’s not just “no expert,” he’s woefully ignorant. Yet he objects to Hillary Clinton’s mention of sea level rise.
This is what he had to say about that:
Empirical observation says otherwise. Since 1992 sea level in Miami has risen only a little over 1 inch — a rate of 4.2 inches per century, no faster than for millennia. Mrs. Clinton is wrong. It’s not time to move to the mountains.
Neil Frank is wrong.
The best source of information about sea level rise in Miami “since 1992” is the satellite data. The Interactive Wizard from the CU Sea Level Research Group enables you to get the satellite sea level data for any location on a 1° latitude-longitude grid, and the one just off the coast of Miami shows this:
Also shown are three smooths fit to the data, a lowess smooth, a spline fit, and a simple linear regression line.
Neil Frank said the total rise since 1992 was only a little more than an inch, and that the rate was 4.2 inches per century, which is a mere 1.07 mm/yr. But the actual rise since 1992 was 4.8 inches (according to the lowess smooth and spline fits) or 3.1 inches according to a linear regression. Linear regression also estimates the rate at 3.3 mm/yr.
If you prefer tide gauge data to satellite data, there’s one at Virginia Key in Miami. It shows this:
The rate of rise is estimated at 4.5 mm/yr, and the total rise since 1994 at 3.8 inches.
Then there’s Neil Frank’s bull about the current rate of sea level rise being “no faster than for millennia.” That is absolute nonsense.
Neil Frank is no sea level expert, but Jerry Mitrovica is. Take a look at his lecture on the topic, at the 9:44 time stamp he specifically discusses that claim, saying “I don’t even know why they bother with this it’s so obvious that that’s not true.”
He discusses how easy it is to refute Neil Frank’s claim starting around the 29:48 time stamp. It’s well worth watching. Here’s a realistic estimate of sea level over the last few millenia:
When it comes to the threat sea level rise poses to Florida, Hillary Clinton was right. Neil Frank is wrong. His statements about sea level rise in Miami are total baloney. She’s also right about man-made climate change making the damage from hurricane Matthew worse — because of sea level alone.
It’s no surprise Frank’s nonsense was printed in The Daily Caller. They’ve published nonsense about sea level rise, in Miami in particular, before. Interested readers are invited to critique this, for example.
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