Worth watching, here and on Climate Denial Crock of the Week:
More of the same, but gradually worse.
Thanks for the reference, very useful summary. Is there a transcription somewhere? Very fine collection well stitched together.
[Response: Follow the link to “Crock of the Week” and ask there — they produced the video.]
Thanks, will do
Wow, great to see Suki Manabe from 1988. He’s always been one of my climate science heroes.
Excellent summary of the outlook of things. Homo S Sapiens running toward the biogeophysical wall – which itself accelerates closer. Syria was just the humble beginning. Combine Rwanda (same horror now starting in Burundi) with Arab spring and multiply by 10 (if not 100).
The ultimate evaluation of our global sapience has begun.
The invasion of Iraq driving 1.5 million Refugees into Syria at the same time as the drought is also causal. See Colin P. Kelley, Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir, Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, PNAS, March 17, 2015, vol. 112, no. 11, 3241–3246, http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112
The results of Paris will be telling. What is needed is serious action to limit warming to well below 2°C. With that amount of warming the middle and the end of the 21st century will still be fractious (and worse thereafter) but it’s navigable in terms of maintaining somewhere a semblance of advanced society.
What is likely from Paris is a tepid commitment to something mucher closer to 3°C. In this case the Syrian situation will be reflected internationally, in some of the most highly populated regions of the planet. Don’t imagine that your decendants a lifetime hence will be living as you do in such a world: look instead to Peter Sinclair’s video.
And if no substantive action results from Paris, and it’s just business as usual… well, I’m a broken record (remember those?) on this – we should start writing the collective epitaph for civilisation and the biosphere as we currently know them.
From what I’ve been hearing, the INDCS presented so far do point toward something like a 3 C trajectory. For example, this report from September:
Ms. Figueras, and many others, see this as a beginning, not an end. For the reasons you allude to, we need to do everything we can to ensure that that is the case.
And speaking of Paris and international security, the major players in climate change denialism (yes, denialism have come out with this:
What hope is there when there is so much stagnation in the shallow end of the human gene pool? Really?