Daily Archives: July 30, 2015

Getting model-data comparison right

One of the favorite criticisms harped on by deniers is that global temperature isn’t rising as fast as computer models have predicted. So far, comparisons have shown that observed temperature is on the low end, even skirting the significantly low end, of model results. They generally use this to imply, or say outright, that not only are models “wrong wrong wrong” but the whole of climate science is “wrong wrong wrong.”

Of course it might be a valid criticism of the models, but not of global warming theory which most decidedly does not depend on complex computer models. The models are just our best way of forecasting what the future will bring; they aren’t necessary to understand, or confirm by many observations (not just temperature data), the physics behind man-made climate change.

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Where most of us live (with apologies to southern-hemisphere readers)

Almost all of us live on land, not the ocean. And, most of us live in the northern hemisphere, not the southern. For the benefit of most of us, let’s take a closer look at how temperature has changed, in the northern hemisphere, on land.

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Quick note to regular readers

We’ve contacted Paypal, they tell us that the problem with donations has been a glitch on their end. They also say that sometime tomorrow or the next, it should be working OK.

I’ll also mention that, although I often post about new scientific results and mathematical analyses, often quite technical, I also feel the need to post about what’s happening right now, and in simple terms. Many of you are quite knowledgeable and sophisticated, but I need to write stuff for the more typical lay reader as well. So, my next post will be a simple exposition of recent temperature in the northern hemisphere, on land, but (I hope!) will not be very technical.