I retrieved data myself, temperature at the 850 hPa level (about 1.5 km altitude) from 20th-century reanalysis, from ECMWF. I’ve looked at two locations on the equator, at longitude 45E and 60E, selected because they’re two places for which Sardeshmukh shows an increase in mean temperature but not in the probability of extreme temperature, defining “extreme” as more than 2 standard deviations above the mean. Here’s his graph of how the mean temperature has changed (in units of standard deviations):
When I analyzed the data, I got a different result than he got. A very different result. Somethin’ ain’t right, and I really want to know what’s goin’ on.
Open Mind 