A: Add Glenn Beck.
Watts has posted about a video from two of Glenn Beck’s minions, in which (it is claimed) “two guys with a ruler blow up the white house global warming video claims.” You can watch their video, or you can read Anthony Watts’ take on it.
I know, I know, why am I bothering with such tripe? Because this is just too good to pass up.
You don’t have to read it, I’ll tell you Anthony Watts’ take on it:
Remember White House science advisor John Holdren’s wackadoodle video about the Polar Vortex? The opening line of the video spoken by Dr. Holdren says
“If you’ve been hearing that extreme cold spells, like the one we’re having in the United States now disproves global warming…don’t believe it.”
He then goes on to present evidence, like this plot of mid-tropospheric temperature, which looks like it is from UAH/Dr. Roy Spencer, though no citation is given in the video.
The funny part? Watch these two guys blow the glossy WH take on this visual out of the water with just a ruler and some common sense.
Here’s the graphic shown:
Clearly, unambiguously, undeniably, Anthony Watts has endorsed — in fact, praised — their “reasoning.” I wonder … how long until Watts starts to back off from that? Will he end up claiming that he doesn’t endorse their reasoning? That he never did?
So … what objections are raised in this video about the graph? Here’s my attempt at a “transcript” of the relevant part:
“The reason they started in 1978 is because it’s colder than it was back here.” [points to the left of where the graph begins] “If you started it back here it wouldn’t look like it was warming that much at all. But they started it in 1978, now this is satellite records so that’s about the time that they started, but they selected satellite records I believe intentionaly, because this is the cool — there’s cooling here between about 1940 and — and the mid-1970s. So they started in 1978, they use this chart, to show how dramatic the warming is.
Now, let’s go beyond that. Here’s zero. Why is the first temperature well below zero? They want this line to look more dramatic. If you see the zero — the end line is not much above zero at all, zero is, you know, you would think, the average of the entire time. Now here’s another part. Here is the — this is where the line starts, OK, this is the end, the red line, this is the line you’re supposed to look at. Why is the red line up there? Well let’s look at where the temperature actually is. Here’s where the temperature actually is, right there. Now if you look at this and you follow the line all the way over here, we’re at the same temperature as it was in 1978, 1979. And one more additional thing is, if you want to start fooling with when you’re going to pick the starting dates, how about let’s start the starting date right here in 1998 where the temperature’s the warmest, and look at that trend. This is where the temperature is now, and that’s 1998, the warmest year on record. I mean, even with” — [other person speaks briefly] — “Take this red line out for a second and look at the chart. If anything, you haven’t seen any warming obviously since 1998, but even when you go back to, this is where the temperature is basically bunching now, right around here, you’re going back to the entire history of the temperature record that they’re showing you, and there’s very little actually below where we are right now. And this is, this is the sort of manipulation they use all the time on these charts …”
I was going to dissect these arguments, or to put it another way, to “blow the glossy Glenn Beck take on this visual out of the water.” But why should I have all the fun? So, I’ve decided to leave that up to readers. Just to help, here are some graphs which might be relevant.
An enlarged view of the graph from the video:
UAH TMT data from its start (December 1978) through June 2009 (as near as I can tell, the range shown in the visual), together with a least-squares trend line:
UAH TMT data from its start (December 1978) through December 2013, together with a least-squares trend line:
Mid-troposphere (500hPa) temperature since 1958 from HadAT2:
Surface temperature since a little before 1920 from NASA GISS: