As strange as it may seem … I expected better, even from Anthony Watts’ blog.
That’s right. I said it.
There’s a post by Nils-Axel Mörner on WUWT which attempts to dispute concerns about sea level rise. In this particular case it draws attention to the Marshall Islands.
Mörner begins by showing this graph of sea level at Kwajalein:
It shows considerable rise, as well as recent acceleration. We can even retrieve the data from PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) and confirm this finding:
Not only is it rising, the rate of sea level rise has increased (i.e., sea level has accelerated):
However, Mörner only shows the data from Kwajalein to ridicule the idea of sea level rise. He goes on to show another data record from the same region, for Majuro, saying:
This is a sea level graph (from Majuro) and is shows a general sea level stability from 1992 to 2010.
No traces of any acceleration!
It looks like Kwajalein is affected by a local subsidence induced by building construction (or some sea level “correction” in order to have it going up).
The Majuro records, for sure, contradicts and acceleration claim; even a general “rise”.
In conclusion, don’t “hang your hat” on the Kwajalein graph. Look around and observe!
There’s one part of Mörner’s statement I agree with: that we should look around and observe. Closely.
Regular readers here know that I like to get my hands on the data. Sometimes I even analyze it. So I got the data for Majuro.
There are actually two data records available from PSMSL, “Majuro B” and “Majuro C”. Here they are, for the period 1993 to 2010, with “B” in black and “C” in red:
It looks a lot like the graph Mörner shows, and although it shows signs of increase there’s not much, and certainly no sign of acceleration.
But here’s the part Mörner doesn’t mention: there’s a lot more data for Majuro than just from 1993 to 2010. Let’s look at it all!
Well whadaya know? It definitely increases, and a strong sign of acceleration!
We can even align the two records to form a single estimate of sea level at Majuro, and fit a smooth curve to that:
Yep. Increase and acceleration.
The wild and crazy part is, that all you have to do to know how “shallow” is Mörner’s claim, is take his advice: Look around and observe. With Mörner — as with most of the contributors to the WUWT blog — I advise you to look closely. Very closely.