Under the guise of a “big picture” look, WUWT reader “just the facts” purports to show that climate data don’t support the claim of an increase in extreme weather. But he (she?) doesn’t show evidence about extreme anything, just a bunch of graphs, which he got from other sources, followed by the wrong conclusions. Show a graph of, say, global average temperature, then say “doesn’t look like there’s been much global warming” (even though there has been), and conclude “no increase in extreme weather here.” And of course “he” goes “out of his way” to use “scare quotes” at “every opportunity.”
There’s nothing about the dramatic increase in weather-related catastrophes worldwide:
There’s no mention of the increase in declared disasters in the U.S.:
There’s not a word about the record-shattering heat waves in Europe in 2003, or Russia in 2010, or the terrible heat wave and drought in the U.S. this summer, or the even more astounding heat wave over much of the U.S. this last spring. Not a word about the increase in extreme 1-day precipitation events in the U.S.
No mention of the increase in wildfires in the U.S.:
In fact, there’s not one graph, or one word, related to extremes at all — except to deny that they have increased.
That’s denial in action.
Perhaps the pinnacle of his denial is the “discussion” of sea ice and snow cover. There’s this:
However, there is currently there is no generally accepted measure of ice volume, as Cryosat is still in validation and the accuracy of measurements from Grace are still being challenged.
which is simply denial of the generally accepted ice volume estimate from PIOMAS. The one that looks like this:
Then there’s this denial of the link between sea ice decline and rising temperature:
Sea Ice Area and Extent are cited as proxies for “Earth’s Temperature”, however there is significant evidence that the primary influences on Sea Ice Area and Extent are in fact wind and Atmospheric Oscillations.
Wind and atmospheric oscillations have a profound impact on the fluctuations of sea ice area and extent. But they are not responsible for the trend. Obviously, the WUWT crowd don’t want to accept the reality of the difference between climate change and weather.
Those who buy into the “sea ice decline is due to wind and oscillations” garbage aren’t just mistaken. They’re in denial. You have to be seriously in denial to rationalize away such an obvious sign of global warming. Those who are interested in the truth of the matter should read this.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, that if you deny that Arctic sea ice loss is powerful evidence of global warming then you’re not a skeptic. You’re in denial. Deep denial. That includes WUWT regular “just the facts” who shows the dramatic decline of Arctic sea ice, all the time telling us that there’s no relationship between warming and ice loss.
In another undead denial point, sea ice changes are summarized thus:
There appears to have been a negative trend in Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area and Extent and a positive trend in Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area and Extent, thus the resultant Global Sea Ice Area trend appears to be slightly negative.
Note how the Arctic decrease and Antarctic increase are treated on equal footing, as though they were comparable, while the global trend is called “slight.” This is another common fallacy repeated again and again and again by deniers, as though repeating it will somehow make it true.
The positive trend in Southern hemisphere sea ice extent is +14.6 thousand km^2 per year. The negative trend in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is -54.7 thousand km^2 per year — that’s 3.75 times as fast. Yes, almost four times as fast. The two trends are simply not comparable.
In fact the negative trend in global sea ice extent is -40.1 thousand km^2 per year — that’s 2.75 times as fast (in the opposite direction) as the southern trend. Yes, almost three times as fast. The Antarctic and global trends are simply not comparable. Yet WUWT regular “just the facts” calls the global trend “slightly negative” while referring to the Antarctic trend just as “positive.” That’s denial at work.
WUWT regular “just the facts” is equally eager to trivialize trends in snow cover:
While none of the Snow plots offers a global perspective, when looking at the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to have been a slight increase in Snowcover and Winter Snow Extent, a decrease in Spring Snow Extent and no change in Fall Snow Extent over the historical record.
That “slight increase” in winter snow cover is not statistically significant:
The number at the top (6) is the estimated trend rate in thousands of km^2 per year, while the number in parentheses (15) is the standard error of the trend estimate. The trend isn’t even close to being significant. The trend in fall snow cover is flat as a pancake:
But the trend in spring snow decline is definitely significant:
What WUWT regular “just the facts” doesn’t show is snow cover data for summer. That’s probably because nobody plotted it for him — none of the plots are his own. I’m happy to oblige:
Once again the trend is statistically significant, and the decline in summertime snow cover is even faster than the decline is spring snow cover. In summary: no season shows significant increase in snow cover, but both spring and summer show rapid decrease.
Evidently WUWT regular “just the facts” takes the same approach to “fair and balanced” reporting as Faux News.
Based on the limited Global Ice and Snow measurements available, and noting the questionable value of Sea Ice Area and Extent as a proxy for temperature, not much inference can currently be drawn from Earth’s Ice and Snow measurements.
This is just as wrong the second time, as it was the first.
To those who are uncertain about the reality of global warming, go and read the post by WUWT regular “just the facts” then come back here and re-read this post. It might open your eyes to the extent of genuine denial from those who call themselves skeptical of global warming.
The only extreme we’ve gotten from WUWT regular “just the facts” is his denial. As usual, it’s endless repetition of the same long-disproved garbage, again, and again, and again. I guess denial is a dish best served by zombies. Where’s my shotgun?