Let’s make a fake prediction.
We’ll use ocean heat content data. Here’s the data for the global oceans:
Here are the residuals from the smoothed curve:
Note that there’s a decided hot fluctuation in 2003. So we’ll “predict” the time span 2003 to the present, based on data from 1993 to 2003.
First we’ll make a real prediction using those data. Then we’ll fake it. Here’s the data from 1993 to the present, together with a trend line estimated from 1993-2003 data:
Here’s a common-sense prediction: the trend continues. That looks like this:
We can see that observations don’t follow the prediction exactly — of course! The main difference is that during 2003, the observations were hotter than the prediction. For that time span at least, the oceans had more heat than predicted.
If you’re a fake global warming skeptic then that won’t do. Fake time! We’ll take the actual prediction, the one based on common sense, and just move it upward so that it coincides with the first obervation of 2003. That looks like this:
Voila! A fake prediction, tailor-made for a fake skeptic.
When you look at reality it’s kinda obvious how fake that is. But if you’re a fake skeptic, that’s O-tay.
Who would do such a thing?