Vindication?

Craig Loehle has contributed a post to WUWT claiming that a new temperature reconstruction by Ljungqvist (2010, A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millenia, Geografiska Annaler 92A(3):339-351) somehow “vindicates” his own work (Loehle 2007, A 2000 Year Global Temperature Reconstruction based on Non-Treering Proxy Data, Energy & Environment 18:1049-1058).

I got lucky

As most of you are aware, I had predicted that the 2010 minimum of arctic sea ice extent as measured by JAXA would be 4.78 million km^2. This turned out to be a remarkably close prediction, because the minimum (so far, which is probably but not certainly this year’s actual minimum) was 4.813594 million km^2. I was off by less than 1 percent.

Do You Care?

The ability to be smart, even very smart, is no guarantee that you won’t sometimes be stupid — even very stupid.

Death Spiral

We may have already passed the minimum in arctic sea ice extent for 2010, according to data from JAXA. The minimum this year (on Sept. 10) was 4,952,813 km^2.

Open Thread

I’ve just returned from a conference in California … so I should be able better to keep up with moderation.

Meanwhile, here’s another open thread.