> > There is little doubt … (funny attractors)….
> It also seems to be the case
[ citation needed]
> the earth’s sensitivity … is also
> extremely variable
[ citation needed]
> as would be expected in the chaotic system
> …and it does seem to change of time.
[ citation needed]
> … Has the climate sensitivity altered …
> It is quite clear
[ citation needed]
> that >50% of the time it is >3C
[ citation needed]
> and recent evidence suggests
[ citation needed]
> it is currently more like 5C.
[ citation needed]
> … Anyway i’m rambling
> … the greatest cause of crop loss is
> wind damage!!!
[ citation needed]

I spent a few minutes trying to look up the wind damage claim and can’t sort it out; there are extensive data sets shared among crop insurance programs for example, but it looks like hail and rain rather than wind per se may be more of a problem.

I think the point ’simple’ is trying to make is that climate change may cause more extreme weather; that can be supported with a little research.

There is little doubt that the world is a choatic system and will act as such.

Thus during a time of an external warming influence the rate of heat dissipation into any particular point in the system (lower troposphere temp) will vary although at first there will be a linear warming.

After a critical point linear warming is lost to be replaced by times of comparitively less warming (can be even be apparent cooling due to changes in other factors (sunspots, La Nina etc..) and greater warming with jumps occuring between the two (funny attractors), although the overall warming of that part of system continues.

If the warming influence continues the rise (as it is) the rate and size of changes also change. It therefore reasonable to predict that the rate of rise of surface temeprature will vary more and more dramatically although still continue to rise relentlessly; there are no real cooling periods just periods of faster and slower cooling with natural variations overlayed giving breif episodes of apparent cooling or cool years or runs of cooler years (e.g. 2007-8).

Now whether we are in a slower warming period after 1998 is questionable. It does seem to be the case if the 1998 extreme is taken as a peak rather part of the trend, take the 10years from 1988-98 including 1998 and then 1999 to 2008 and there is a clear warming, despite 1998 effectively biasing the early ten years to be warmer however. Also it must the be remembered that the the surface temp is likley to be falsely low due to shading from brown clouds over Asia, Africa, Americas and the Pacific, the far greater than expected rate of ice melt (including the thinning from beneath of the arctic sea ice) that has occured, the low sunspots and the tendency of the Nina system to La Nina conditions. That is a lot more heat has been coming into the system from GHG than is apparent from ST and the apparent cooling is likely to be myth of relying on one measurement.

It also seems to be the case the earth’s sensitivity to a warming force is also extremely variable as would be expected in the chaotic system and it does seem to change of time.

However how fast can it change?

Has the climate sensitivity altered over the last 100years on several occassions?

It is quite clear that >50% of the time it is >3C and recent evidence suggests it is currently more like 5C.

Will it or has it changed again?

Will it Drop or fall?

No way of knowing really, although it is likely that it will continue fluctuate as the size of the warming influence increases and lets face it CO2 is going up, EL Nino has just formed and sunspots are on the rise, arctic ice is decreasing, it appears oceans warm low level clouds dissipate or in other words all the warming influences are currently increasing and we still have the heat from the last 20-30years to make its way into the system.

Lets hope the climate sensitivity doesn’t shift gear again or global warming will take us all by surpise by doing a rapid jump, although of course this may have already happened just it is lagged in the system as it is truly surprising that warming has continued despite increasing natural cooling influences since 2001.

Anyway i’m rambling and the most rapid change in climate systems will be the changes in prevailing winds and weather patterns (this has already happened i’d say in the UK unless 3 winters and 3 summers of aborant jetstream positioning is just pure chance and not connected to the arctic melts and expanding tropics!).

Change the wind patterns and change the regional climate overnight, from wet to dry or cold to hot or conbinations there of. The sort of thing eco-systems find hard to adapt to, occuring very rapidly.

Also lets hope the heat dissipation doesn’t become turbulent with large swings in step wise heating and cooling events, otherwise the weather would get truly something to talk about, sudden expanding tropics, out bursts of cool winds to the mid tropics etc. Remember that the greatest cause of crop loss is wind damage!!!

Maybe its time we seriously started not adding to the potential and remove Co2 and start planning for the adaptations we are going to need to be free from fossil fuels, intensive GHG agriculture, ground salination, extreme weather events, population migrations and flooding.

Negative carbon living now that is a challenge for every individual!

Indeed, for the most recent 4.5 ky there is nothing but red noise at these long periods. Of some interest the the GISP2 ammonium record in figure 3 which seems to contain a regular structure at long periods. Note the 3–4 ky period throughout the entire 50 ky analysis. This might be tentatively identified as a flunctuation in Pacific deepwater with a storage time of around 2 ky causing periodic droughts in North America.

but Acrobat8 crashed and FF3.5.1 closed unexpectedly on trying. Search for the title; there’s a HTML version Google provides.

[Response: This appears to be nearly identical to Rodionov, S.N., 2006, The use of prewhitening in climate regime shift detection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12707, which is available here.

Fascinating stuff! Well worth careful study.]

Thank you very much.

Lindzen’s paper says the feedback is in shortwave radiation.

Shortwave radiation??? Visible light??? Is he saying the tropics glow more brightly when they heat up?
</blockquote.

reflected shortwave radiation, i.e. clouds, apparently …

I just gave it a quick read-through thus far …