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	<title>Comments on: Yet More CO2</title>
	<atom:link href="http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/</link>
	<description>Science, Politics, Life, the Universe, and Everything</description>
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		<title>By: Harold Pierce Jr</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-22206</link>
		<dc:creator>Harold Pierce Jr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 02:05:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-22206</guid>
		<description>The rate of rotation of the earth was probably faster 300 million years ago than it is presently.  A faster rate of rotation would result in a warmer earth.

I seem to recall that the earth&#039;s rate of rotation decreases a few tenths of a millisecond per year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The rate of rotation of the earth was probably faster 300 million years ago than it is presently.  A faster rate of rotation would result in a warmer earth.</p>
<p>I seem to recall that the earth&#8217;s rate of rotation decreases a few tenths of a millisecond per year.</p>
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		<title>By: TokyoTom</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21100</link>
		<dc:creator>TokyoTom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2008 06:38:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21100</guid>
		<description>Brian, let me ask you a question:  do you understand how much warmer it was  millions of years ago, when dinosaurs and tropical life flourished at the poles, and the CO2 that we have been releasing from &quot;fossil fuels&quot; wasn&#039;t yet fossilized, but in the atmosphere.  As the energy received from the sun was LESS than now (during the Carboniferous period (about 300 million years ago) the solar constant was about 2.5% less than today), where did the higher temps (6-8 C higher than today) come from, if not GHGs?  http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/geoclimate.html

Do you prefer that we turn the whole world into a Cretaceous Park, or is there some point at which you&#039;d say that it&#039;s fair for us to take control over the global thermometer from the fossil fuel firms?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian, let me ask you a question:  do you understand how much warmer it was  millions of years ago, when dinosaurs and tropical life flourished at the poles, and the CO2 that we have been releasing from &#8220;fossil fuels&#8221; wasn&#8217;t yet fossilized, but in the atmosphere.  As the energy received from the sun was LESS than now (during the Carboniferous period (about 300 million years ago) the solar constant was about 2.5% less than today), where did the higher temps (6-8 C higher than today) come from, if not GHGs?  <a href="http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/geoclimate.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96/geoclimate.html</a></p>
<p>Do you prefer that we turn the whole world into a Cretaceous Park, or is there some point at which you&#8217;d say that it&#8217;s fair for us to take control over the global thermometer from the fossil fuel firms?</p>
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		<title>By: Hank Roberts</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21078</link>
		<dc:creator>Hank Roberts</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:46:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21078</guid>
		<description>&gt; Hank Roberts apparently was
&gt; unable to dig up ...

Good grief, Brian.  I&#039;m not the miner, you are, if you&#039;re _that_ guy.  Are you?

_You_ have to dig.  I can help you figure out _where_ to dig (so can anyone else, it&#039;s cut and paste work with the search engine).

Let&#039;s paste your text into Scholar one more time again yet:

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=relationship+between+SSTs+and+CO2+growth

Consider LeQuere&#039;s work for example.
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=Lequere+biological+productivity+sea+surface+temperature+climate+model

Good grief, Brian.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&gt; Hank Roberts apparently was<br />
&gt; unable to dig up &#8230;</p>
<p>Good grief, Brian.  I&#8217;m not the miner, you are, if you&#8217;re _that_ guy.  Are you?</p>
<p>_You_ have to dig.  I can help you figure out _where_ to dig (so can anyone else, it&#8217;s cut and paste work with the search engine).</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s paste your text into Scholar one more time again yet:</p>
<p><a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=relationship+between+SSTs+and+CO2+growth" rel="nofollow">http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=relationship+between+SSTs+and+CO2+growth</a></p>
<p>Consider LeQuere&#8217;s work for example.<br />
<a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=Lequere+biological+productivity+sea+surface+temperature+climate+model" rel="nofollow">http://scholar.google.com/scholar?sourceid=Mozilla-search&amp;q=Lequere+biological+productivity+sea+surface+temperature+climate+model</a></p>
<p>Good grief, Brian.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Klappstein</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21076</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Klappstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:55:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21076</guid>
		<description>&quot;...disdain for proper statistical evaluation,...&quot;

(tamino)

Actually I was hoping to intrigue you enough to investigate in detail the statistical relationship between SOI and Co2 growth. A while back I posted my &quot;cherry-picked&quot; R2 of .64 and you noted due to autocorrelation it was unlikely as strong as I believed. But you never came back with any statistics counter to my preliminary investigation.

Hank Roberts apparently was unable to dig up any papers on the relationship between SSTs and CO2 growth, so to my mind (as noted above) the topic is ripe for investigation. I think you also noted the Knorr et al 2007 paper was weak because it wasn&#039;t supported by appropriate statistical analysis.

All in all there are lots of reasons to pursue this hypothesis further. If I had the time and the expertise....but I don&#039;t.

Regards, BRK</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;disdain for proper statistical evaluation,&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>(tamino)</p>
<p>Actually I was hoping to intrigue you enough to investigate in detail the statistical relationship between SOI and Co2 growth. A while back I posted my &#8220;cherry-picked&#8221; R2 of .64 and you noted due to autocorrelation it was unlikely as strong as I believed. But you never came back with any statistics counter to my preliminary investigation.</p>
<p>Hank Roberts apparently was unable to dig up any papers on the relationship between SSTs and CO2 growth, so to my mind (as noted above) the topic is ripe for investigation. I think you also noted the Knorr et al 2007 paper was weak because it wasn&#8217;t supported by appropriate statistical analysis.</p>
<p>All in all there are lots of reasons to pursue this hypothesis further. If I had the time and the expertise&#8230;.but I don&#8217;t.</p>
<p>Regards, BRK</p>
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		<title>By: Petro</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21041</link>
		<dc:creator>Petro</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:55:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21041</guid>
		<description>BRK, I truly hope your clients receive better statistical analysis from you than what you have presented here. Any economical decision which is based on such a sloppy skill is bound to be, if not incorrect, justified incorrecly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BRK, I truly hope your clients receive better statistical analysis from you than what you have presented here. Any economical decision which is based on such a sloppy skill is bound to be, if not incorrect, justified incorrecly.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Klappstein</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21040</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Klappstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 17:34:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21040</guid>
		<description>Actually the &quot;project manager&quot; is pretty ancient history. I&#039;m a currently geological consultant to the mining industry, and needless to say my views are my own not my clients.

This &quot;outing&quot; is pretty old too, since that happened on the Globe and Mail blogs about a year ago.

I will say another thing which should be obvious but perhaps needs repeating. My motives can be whatever this audience wants them to be, but that is irrelevant to whether my hypotheses are correct or incorrect. No amount of  casting aspersion on my character changes the R2 statistic on  the relationship between SOI and the monthly CO2 growth rate.

As a final point, if I was really into changing the political landscape on climate change, this wouldn&#039;t be the blog to do it on. It&#039;s too technical, low traffic, and populated by sincere AGW believers to make any progress on that front.

Regards,  BRK

[&lt;i&gt;Response: What &lt;b&gt;is&lt;/b&gt; relevant to whether your hypotheses are correct or incorrect is your disdain for proper statistical evaluation, as indicated by your claims about a decrease in the growth rate of CO2, and the quote from your comment on Watts&#039; blog.&lt;/i&gt;]
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually the &#8220;project manager&#8221; is pretty ancient history. I&#8217;m a currently geological consultant to the mining industry, and needless to say my views are my own not my clients.</p>
<p>This &#8220;outing&#8221; is pretty old too, since that happened on the Globe and Mail blogs about a year ago.</p>
<p>I will say another thing which should be obvious but perhaps needs repeating. My motives can be whatever this audience wants them to be, but that is irrelevant to whether my hypotheses are correct or incorrect. No amount of  casting aspersion on my character changes the R2 statistic on  the relationship between SOI and the monthly CO2 growth rate.</p>
<p>As a final point, if I was really into changing the political landscape on climate change, this wouldn&#8217;t be the blog to do it on. It&#8217;s too technical, low traffic, and populated by sincere AGW believers to make any progress on that front.</p>
<p>Regards,  BRK</p>
<p>[<i>Response: What <b>is</b> relevant to whether your hypotheses are correct or incorrect is your disdain for proper statistical evaluation, as indicated by your claims about a decrease in the growth rate of CO2, and the quote from your comment on Watts' blog.</i>]</p>
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		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21032</link>
		<dc:creator>TCO</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:53:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21032</guid>
		<description>I would also be very catious of using some of these fancy filters and then discerning trends (with implicit statistical relevance).  Smoothing and filtering are better for visual representation of data (and for some things like audio quality).  Regressed filtered data is troublesome as you don&#039;t know how much degrees of freedom have been compromised, treatment of outliers, etc.  I would just be rather leary instead of rather FAST to pull out the big guns like that.  (Just my sorta feeling.  But I also felt the same way about how Steve McI &quot;overmodeled&quot; the &quot;red noise&quot; in his MBH comparison testing.  I have these intutions where I just sorta smell a possible flaw despite not knowing any math.  :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would also be very catious of using some of these fancy filters and then discerning trends (with implicit statistical relevance).  Smoothing and filtering are better for visual representation of data (and for some things like audio quality).  Regressed filtered data is troublesome as you don&#8217;t know how much degrees of freedom have been compromised, treatment of outliers, etc.  I would just be rather leary instead of rather FAST to pull out the big guns like that.  (Just my sorta feeling.  But I also felt the same way about how Steve McI &#8220;overmodeled&#8221; the &#8220;red noise&#8221; in his MBH comparison testing.  I have these intutions where I just sorta smell a possible flaw despite not knowing any math.  :)</p>
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		<title>By: TCO</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21031</link>
		<dc:creator>TCO</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:44:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21031</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think you should do a regression on smoothed data.  Just do the regression on the noisy data itself.  Fit the second order (or whatever to that).   Removing the annual result is fine.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think you should do a regression on smoothed data.  Just do the regression on the noisy data itself.  Fit the second order (or whatever to that).   Removing the annual result is fine.</p>
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		<title>By: TokyoTom</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21020</link>
		<dc:creator>TokyoTom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 04:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21020</guid>
		<description>Hank, that quote tells us more than most people understand.  It&#039;s not merely that Brian Klappstein might be the same Brian Klappstein, geologist and project manager for Grande Cache Coal, which coal company is naturally interested in defending its business, and whose employees naturally may wish to think that their work activities do not generate climate risk.  That&#039;s all fairly obvious and understandable.

What people are missing is that our state, provincial and federal governments, here in the US, in Canada and elsewhere, largely own the land from which coal is being extracted and collect very significant royalties as a result.  

Political progress is delayed because the federal government doesn&#039;t want to cut off an important stream of revenues without a replacement, and because local governments are strongly opposed to losing such revenues and employment.   If we want to see progress, the coal states out West and in Appalachia will need to be bought off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hank, that quote tells us more than most people understand.  It&#8217;s not merely that Brian Klappstein might be the same Brian Klappstein, geologist and project manager for Grande Cache Coal, which coal company is naturally interested in defending its business, and whose employees naturally may wish to think that their work activities do not generate climate risk.  That&#8217;s all fairly obvious and understandable.</p>
<p>What people are missing is that our state, provincial and federal governments, here in the US, in Canada and elsewhere, largely own the land from which coal is being extracted and collect very significant royalties as a result.  </p>
<p>Political progress is delayed because the federal government doesn&#8217;t want to cut off an important stream of revenues without a replacement, and because local governments are strongly opposed to losing such revenues and employment.   If we want to see progress, the coal states out West and in Appalachia will need to be bought off.</p>
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		<title>By: Hank Roberts</title>
		<link>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/08/08/yet-more-co2/#comment-21015</link>
		<dc:creator>Hank Roberts</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 03:29:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tamino.wordpress.com/?p=972#comment-21015</guid>
		<description>It is difficult to convince a man of something when his paycheck depends on his not understanding it. (Upton Sinclair)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is difficult to convince a man of something when his paycheck depends on his not understanding it. (Upton Sinclair)</p>
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