Wonderful World of Wavelets

Nature is full of cycles. Temperature tends to rise during daytime and fall at night, and to rise during summer and fall in winter. During ice ages, glaciers advance, retreat, advance, retreat again. Sunspots increase and decrease in a roughly 11-year repeating pattern. Even the stars can pulse, showing repeated brightenings and dimmings with repetition periods ranging from mere minutes to years.

On the Shoulders of Giants

Isaac Newton once said, “If I have seen further than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.”

Newton was certainly a giant in the his own right. But he was paying homage to Galileo, Kepler, and Copernicus. He didn’t ridicule Galileo for not completing the formulation of the fundamental laws of motion, he acknowledged Galileo’s progress as a pioneer. He didn’t call Kepler idiotic for failing to show that the laws of planetary motion necessarily follow from an inverse-square gravitational force. He didn’t dismiss Copernicus for a fool, because Copernicus clung to the theory of epicycles.

Here Comes the Sun, part 2

The total energy output of the sun, also known as Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), is extremely difficult to estimate in past ages. But for 25 years or so, it has been monitored by satellites. This doesn’t mean we have precise and accurate measurements over the last two and a half decades! Precise, yes; accurate, we’re not sure.

Change in the Wind

This is not about the science of global warming. In fact, it’s not about science at all. This is an editorial.

Recent developments have indicated a “change in the wind” about global warming. For over a year now (thanks in large part to Al Gore’s film An Independent Truth) polls have indicated that most Americans believe global warming is real and should be dealt with by our government. The elections last November replaced the Republican majority in both houses of congress with a Democratic majority in both houses of congress. Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), possibly the most vocal opponent of action on global warming, will no longer be chair of the senate Environment and Public Works committee, being replaced by enviro-friendly senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA). Incoming house speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has announced her intention to form a house committe to address the issue. Several proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are in the House of Representatives already. Despite the sizeable opposition from the Republican party, a few of the more prominent Republicans are outspoken about the need for action (John McCain, R-AZ, and CA governor Arnold Schwarzenegger).

Good Numbers Gone Bad

A news story reports that a new “study” has established a link between a driver’s chance of getting into an auto accident (or getting a traffic ticket) and the driver’s astrological sign. Lee Romanov, president of insurancehotline.com, looked at 100,000 drivers, and their tickets and accidents, as well as their astrological signs. Ms. Romanov reports that, “The results are overwhelming, showing drivers of certain astrological signs are prone to getting more tickets, while others seemed destined to have accidents.” Ms. Romanov has written her findings in a book (you can buy it throught the website) called Car Carma.

I’m skeptical.

Here Comes the Sun

For those who don’t deny global warming but deny that it’s man-made, probably the most popular alternative theory to explain it is solar variations.

Its appeal is obvious. Earth’s climate gets it energy from the sun! If the sun gets hotter, then of course the earth will too. This isn’t complex physics involving the selective absorption of infrared radiation by trace gases in the atmosphere — it’s something everybody can understand, and is so obvious you don’t need Al Gore to explain it.

Leonardo (DiCaprio, not da Vinci)

I happened upon a video on the website of Leonardo DiCaprio. He’s very concerned about global warming, and he’s putting his money where his mouth is — hosting an eco-website, producing and narrating short films to raise awareness about global warming and other environmental issues. His popularity, charisma, and sincerity are bound to be an influential force in raising public awareness and concern.

Leafy CO2

Recently a reader raised the subject of estimating CO₂ concentration in the past by measuring the “stomatal index” of plant fossils. Stomata are pores on leaf surfaces through which plants exchange CO₂, water vapor, and other constituents with the atmosphere. When there’s more CO₂ in the air, there tend to be fewer stomata in many plant species (but not all!).

Time to get interesting … or boring, depending on your perspective.

I recently issued a declaration of independence from denialists. Posts that claim as fact what is truly ludicrous (”Back in the 70s scientists were warning us about an ice age!”) will simply not appear. Arguing about established fact will simply not appear. Beating a dead horse will not happen here.

But naturally, comments to the declaration itself sparked some of the same stuff. There were some ludicrous claims, and when totally refuted, argument ensued. I let many of the comments through, because it was my fault for not instituting the right policy in the first place, I wanted to let folks get their opinions (and even points of contention) out, and I wanted to make a point or two about what is and is not acceptable. But the time for that is over.

Ocean Heat Content

This is a very technical post. I don’t want readers to be intimidated, so if you’re dying to ask the most basic question, but after seeing this you think you’d be in over your head — not so. I’m happy to get technical in some circumstances, and happy to get very basic in others.

On a recent post, a reader commented with an excellent question.