I’m grateful to the Grit for his willingness to discuss openly his skepticism about global warming. He commented on my recent post responding to some of his concerns.
OK, I should have said climate instead of weather, but that’s even worse. From your explanation, it would seem we need to wait 30 years before current models can prove themselves. Yet, everyone seems to be in a hurry to sign off on global warming now.
…
Until a model can successfully predict future conditions, it’s just a tool for looking at history. So, it would seem that computer models are off the table as far as being proof.
I wouldn’t say we have to wait 30 years — although I did say that the closest thing to a “standard” timeframe for the computation of climatological averages was 30 years. In my opinion, the absolute minimum timescale for predictions to validate climate models is 5 years, and even that is dicey — 15 years is more realistic.
(more…)
